Bitcoin (BTC) News Today: Analyzing BTC-Spot ETF Flows and HK ETFs at Sub-$64,000

Geopolitics, the Fed Rate Path, and BTC-spot ETF Market Flow Data

BTC slid by 3.88% on Monday. Reversing a 1.74% gain from Sunday, BTC closed the session at $63,454.

On Monday, US retail sales figures for March impacted investor bets on 2024 Fed rate cuts. US retail sales increased by 0.7% in March after rising by 0.9% in February. Economists forecast a 0.3% increase. The better-than-expected numbers suggested an elevated inflation outlook, influencing the Fed rate path.

Concerns about an Israeli retaliation contributed to the losses. BTC-spot ETF market flow data for April 15 reflected the influence of external market forces on the crypto market.

According to Farside Investors,

• Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) saw net outflows of $110.1 million.
• Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) saw zero net flows.
• Pending flow data for iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), the BTC-spot ETF market saw total net outflows of $110.1 million.

Considering the flow data for April 15, the BTC-spot ETF market (excl. IBIT and GBTC) saw zero net flows for the second successive session.

Regarding the BTC-spot ETF market flow data, Bloomberg Intelligence ETF Analyst James Seyffart commented,

“Don’t get your hopes up guys. This is a $110.1 million OUT flow for the day. Lol.”

The pullback in demand is at a pivotal time, with the Halving date rapidly approaching.

Bitcoin and the Halving Event Countdown

With supply and demand dynamics being the focal point, crypto market conditions will dictate the impact of the Bitcoin Halving Event. Bearish momentum could signal a weakening demand environment and impact buyer demand at the Halving Event.

According to the Bitcoin Halving Countdown Clock, the Bitcoin Halving event will occur on April 20, 2024.

Falling demand before the Halving Event coincided with Hong Kong approving BTC-spot ETFs. Nevertheless, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas poured cold water on the immediate effects of HK approving BTC-spot ETFs on demand, saying,

“Stat of the Day: US spot bitcoin ETFs have more assets than the entire HK ETF market.”

James Seyffart shared the numbers. Notably, the HK ETF market had total assets of ~ $50 billion vs. the US BTC-spot ETF market and ~ $9 trillion in assets.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin Analysis

BTC sat below the 50-day EMA while remaining above the 200-day EMA. The EMAs sent bearish near-term but bullish longer-term price signals.

A BTC break above the $64,000 resistance level would support a move to the 50-day EMA. A breakout from the 50-day EMA could give the bulls a run at the $69,000 resistance level.

On Tuesday, the Middle East, the US economic calendar, and BTC-spot ETF flow data warrant investor attention.

Conversely, a BTC drop below the $63,000 handle could give the bears a run at the $60,365 support level.

With a 14-Daily RSI reading of 41.96, BTC may fall to the $60,365 support level before entering oversold territory.

Ethereum Analysis

ETH remained below the 50-day EMA while holding above the 200-day EMA. The EMAs affirmed the bearish near-term but bullish longer-term price signals.

An ETH move through the $3,244 resistance level could give the bulls a run at the 50-day EMA. A break above the 50-day EMA would support a move toward the $3,480 resistance level.

Conversely, an ETH fall through the $3,033 support level could give the bears a run at the 200-day EMA and the $2,664 support level.

The 14-period Daily RSI reading of 40.90 indicates an ETH drop below the $2,900 handle before entering oversold territory.