Ethereum Price Forecast: Key Futures Metric Flashes “Buy” Signal for ETH at $2K

Ethereum (ETH) is approaching the $2,000 mark once again this morning, as it has dropped by 4.6% in the past 24 hours.

Although trading volumes have retreated by 36% during this period, they remain significantly high at nearly 9% of the token’s circulating market cap.

A key metric from the futures market could be providing an early contrarian “buy” signal at the time, as traders’ interest in the token has retreated to its lowest level since May last year.

Open Interest Drops to Lowest Level in 9 Months

Open interest (OI), a metric that tracks the amount of outstanding futures contracts for ETH, currently sits at $24.1 billion according to data from CoinGlass.

Ethereum Open Interest (OI) – Source: CoinGlass

Back in May 2025, OI was this low as well, as Ethereum had progressively declined from $4,000 in December to $1,400 at some point in April.

Market sentiment was heavily depressed, as it is right now, with the Fear and Greed Index also hitting a record low of 11.

Investors were panicking over President Donald Trump’s ongoing trade war with China, while market conditions were less favorable than they are now, as interest rates were higher. Three months later, ETH had jumped to a new all-time high at $4,600.

Investors Panicked Over Kevin Warsh’s Pick as Future Head of the Fed

As OI gets this depressed and the Fear and Greed Index makes a new record low of 5, the market is definitely in “Extreme Panic” mode.

These are typically the conditions that the “smart money” loves, and this is often when strong accumulation starts. Ethereum traded for as low as $1,800 last week, as the market cratered following President Trump’s announcement regarding who he would pick as the future head of the Federal Reserve.

A strong risk-off move followed Kevin Warsh’s reveal as a potential replacement for Jerome Powell, causing cascade liquidations exceeding $8 billion in just a week.

ETH Maintains Bearish Structure

The Asian session started the week with further sales, as ETH retested a former support at $2,140. This is the key structural level to watch. If a rejection is confirmed by a sell signal in the lower time frames, this could send Ethereum back to $1,800 during the week.

ETH/USD Daily Chart (Binance) – Source: TradingView

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) in the daily chart has hit its lowest level since August 2024. Back then, ETH also spent a while consolidating between $2,150 and $2,700 to then explode to $4,000 three months later.

Contrarian signals are piling up as the market gets heavily one-sided. Bears are still in control, but this kind of extreme panic is typically followed by short squeezes as market makers target the significant amount of liquidity that lies above key resistance levels.

Key Resistance to Watch at $2,140 Ahead of the American Session

As we can see in a lower time frame, there have been several indications of bullish exhaustion at $2,140 that favor a bearish outlook for ETH. A short position at this point yields a decent 1.6x risk-to-reward ratio.

ETH/USD Hourly Chart (Binance) – Source: TradingView

Meanwhile, traders could wait for a better entry if the American session decides to sweep some liquidity by pushing the price higher to then resume the selling spree.

Although contrarian signals are popping up all over, it is still too early to buy as the downtrend persists for Ethereum.