EUR/USD, GBP/USD, DXY Price Forecast: Awaiting US GDP, Job Claims for Market Clarity

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Published: Mar 28, 2024, 07:53 UTC

Key Points:

German retail contraction and GBP's mixed signals reflect complex economic landscapes in Europe.
US economic data including GDP, Unemployment Claims, and Chicago PMI to influence USD strength.
EUR/USD and GBP/USD face critical junctures amid US data releases and European economic indicators.

Market Overview

Recent data revealed a contraction in German Retail Sales by 1.9%, against a forecasted decrease of 0.4%, underscoring the ongoing challenges in Europe’s largest economy. The GBP saw mixed signals with a current account deficit slightly better than expected at -21.2B GBP and a final GDP quarter-on-quarter reading confirming a contraction of -0.3%.

Events Ahead

Looking forward, the market’s focus shifts to the US, with a packed schedule including the Final GDP quarter-on-quarter expected at 3.2%, Unemployment Claims anticipated around 212K, and the Final GDP Price Index quarter-on-quarter forecasted at 1.6%.

Additionally, the Chicago PMI and Pending Home Sales, along with the Revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations, are set to provide further insights into the US economic landscape.

For the EUR, upcoming figures on German Unemployment Change and the Eurozone’s M3 Money Supply and Private Loans will offer fresh clues on the health of the European economy.

US Dollar Index (DXY)

Dollar Index

The Dollar Index experienced a slight downturn, registering at 104.370, demonstrating a minimal decrease of 0.07%. Currently, the index hovers just below the crucial pivot point of 104.496, suggesting a potentially volatile trading environment.

Resistance levels are mapped out at 104.736, 104.978, and an upper echelon at 105.248. Conversely, foundational support lies at 104.187, with further layers at 103.989 and 103.675. The proximity of the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages at 104.032 and 103.730 respectively underscores the index’s bullish momentum.

However, its position beneath a notable double-top resistance hints at a decisive moment for traders: a bullish breakout above 104.496 could propel further gains, while failure to surpass this threshold may invite a bearish reversal.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

The EUR/USD pair slightly declined by 0.07%, positioning at 1.08207. Presently, the currency duo is navigating below a critical pivot of 1.0835, suggesting a cautious bearish sentiment in the market. Resistance points are identified at 1.0855, 1.0872, and 1.0888, indicating potential barriers to upward momentum.

On the downside, support levels are established at 1.0802, 1.0783, and 1.0761, which may offer a buffer against further declines. The 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages, sitting at 1.08481 and 1.08561 respectively, align closely, hinting at a tight trading range.

A movement above the pivot could signify a shift towards a bullish outlook, while staying below it maintains a bearish perspective.

GBP/USD Technical Forecast

GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

The GBP/USD pair is experiencing a slight downturn, shedding 0.10% to stand at 1.26279. It currently trades beneath the pivotal 1.2649 mark, suggesting a lean towards bearish sentiment. Resistance levels loom at 1.2694, 1.2748, and 1.2805, potentially capping any bullish attempts.

Support is established at 1.2577, with further floors at 1.2536 and 1.2502, ready to counter dips. The proximity of the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages, at 1.2665 and 1.2686 respectively, indicates a tight battle between bears and bulls.

A decisive move above the pivot may shift momentum towards bullish territory, while remaining below could reinforce bearish trends.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

About the Author

Arslan Aliauthor

Arslan, a webinar speaker and derivatives analyst, has an MBA in Finance and MPhil in Behavioral Finance. He guides financial analysis, trading, and cryptocurrency forecasting. Expert in trading psychology and sentiment.