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EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY Forecasts – U.S. Dollar Retreats As Unemployment Rate Rises To 3.9%

By:
Vladimir Zernov
Published: May 3, 2024, 16:17 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

  • EUR/USD tested resistance at 1.0785 - 1.0800 as traders reacted to U.S. economic reports.
  • GBP/USD made an attempt to settle above the 1.2600 level.
  • USD/JPY tested new lows as traders focused on the recent interventions from the BoJ.
EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY Forecasts

In this article:

U.S. Dollar

DXY
DXY 030524 4h Chart

U.S. Dollar Index pulls back as traders react to the disappointing Non Farm Payrolls report, which indicated that the economy added 175,000 jobs in April. Analysts expected Non Farm Payrolls of 243,000, so the report missed analyst estimates. Unemployment Rate increased from 3.8% in March to 3.9% in April, compared to analyst forecast of 3.8%. ISM Services PMI decreased from 52.0 in March to 49.4 in April, while analysts expected that it would decline to 51.4. Treasury yields moved lower as bond traders reacted to the weaker-than-expected reports. Falling Treasury yields put additional pressure on the American currency.

In case U.S. Dollar Index settles below the 105.00 level, it will head towards the nearest support, which is located in the 104.40 – 104.60 range.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD
EUR/USD 030524 4h Chart

EUR/USD gains ground as traders focus on the economic data from the U.S. In case the U.S. economy starts to slow down, the Fed may be more dovish than previously expected.

A successful test of the resistance at 1.0785 – 1.0800 will open the way to the test of the next resistance level at 1.0870 – 1.0885.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD
GBP/USD 030524 4h Chart

GBP/USD pulled back after an unsuccessful attempt to settle above the 1.2600 level. Today, traders focused on the UK Services PMI report, which showed that UK Services PMI increased from 53.1 in March to 55.0 in April.

In case GBP/USD settles back below the 1.2530 level, it will move towards the nearest support at 1.2425 – 1.2450.

USD/CAD

USD/CAD
USD/CAD 030524 4h Chart

USD/CAD rebounds from session lows as traders focus on the pullbacks in the oil and precious metals markets.

A move above the 50 MA at 1.3692 will push USD/CAD towards the resistance at 1.3785 – 1.3800.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY
USD/JPY 030524 4h Chart

USD/JPY remains under pressure as traders stay focused on the recent interventions from the BoJ.

RSI is close to the oversold territory, but there is enough room to gain additional downside momentum in case USD/JPY settles below the support at 151.50 – 152.00.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

About the Author

Vladimir is an independent trader and analyst with over 10 years of experience in the financial markets. He is a specialist in stocks, futures, Forex, indices, and commodities areas using long-term positional trading and swing trading.

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