NZD/USD Fundamental Forecast – May 6, 2016

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Published: May 5, 2016, 04:13 UTC

The NZD/USD gained in the morning session as the US dollar eased and lower Chinese PMI data added talks of more stimulus. The kiwi climbed to 0.6896 up by

The NZD/USD gained in the morning session as the US dollar eased and lower Chinese PMI data added talks of more stimulus. The kiwi climbed to 0.6896 up by 15 points. Traders pushed the US dollar lower overnight after a worse-than-expected ADP national employment report showed US companies added 156,000 jobs in April, the smallest increase in three years. However, it came back in favor in the early hours of the morning, after data showing the US trade gap shrank to its smallest in 13 months in March and factory orders grew 1.1 percent, more than analysts forecast. Traders are now awaiting Friday’s US jobs report as they try to gauge whether the economy may pick up in the second quarter. The report is expected to show nonfarm payrolls rose by 202,000 in April, while the unemployment rate held steady at 5 percent, according to a Reuters survey. (Scoop)

The greenback gained a second day Wednesday, paring a recent selloff that saw the currency touch a one-year low. Traders are girding for a payrolls report that may dictate whether the Federal Reserve raises interest rates in June, according to Steven Englander, Citigroup’s global head of Group-of-10 currency strategy. A private report showed U.S. employers added fewer workers last month than forecast, muddying the outlook for benchmark borrowing costs. (Bloomberg)

China’s investors have honed in on raw materials amid signs of a pickup in demand after policy makers talked up growth, added stimulus and the property market rebounded. Government reforms aimed at shutting industrial overcapacity also bolstered concern that supplies of raw materials such as coking coal were falling short, according to Fu Peng, a portfolio manager at Lanzmann Global Macro Fund Management Co.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each asset we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports, which covers the current week and are published by Sunday before the new week begins. Daily we share any new events, forecasts or analysis that affect the current day. To achieve a full accurate understanding it is important that you study all of our data and analysis as a whole.

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Friday, May 6, 2016

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
USD	FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
USD	FOMC Member Kaplan Speaks
USD	FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks
USD	FOMC Member Williams Speaks
AUD	RBA Monetary Policy Statement
USD	Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Apr)		0.3%	0.3%
USD	Nonfarm Payrolls (Apr)		202K	215K
USD	Participation Rate (Apr)			63.0%
USD	Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Apr)		193K	195K
USD	Unemployment Rate (Apr)		5.0%	5.0%
USD	Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count			332