Oil Fundamental Forecast – May 16, 2016

Crude Oil dipped 76 cents to 45.94 as traders sold off to book profits as workers returned to the Canadian oil fields as the wildfire subsided and the US dollar rallied. Brent Oil match WTI’s declines falling 74 cents to 47.34. Shell Canada this week said it started to bring its oil sands facilities in Alberta back into operations, after closing for about six days because of the threat of wildfires.

EIA estimates that crude oil production for the month of April 2016 averaged 9 million barrels a day, 100,000 barrels a day below the March 2016 level, and 700,000 barrels a day below the 9.7-million-barrel level reached in April 2015.

Volatility often reflects market uncertainty about both the current and future value of a commodity, says EIA, with daily volatility often driven by the release of new economic or supply information, changes in market expectations, or unanticipated events that can cause large price adjustments.

The disruptions eclipsed worries about rising US crude inventories, which were expected to have grown for a fifth straight week last week to record highs above 543 million barrels.

Oil prices rose 1 percent in volatile trade on Thursday, with U.S. crude hitting six – month highs as investors weighed a forecast for tighter global supplies against signs of another storage build at the hub for U.S. crude futures. Worries of a major outage in Nigerian crude also boosted the market, some traders said. With that, Brent was on track for a weekly rise of 6 percent and WTI 4 percent, continuing a broad uptrend that has added about $20 to a barrel from lows in January and February. WTI could advance to almost $51 in the near – term “on pure technical merits”, said Jim Ritterbusch of Chicago – based oil markets consultancy Ritterbusch & Associates.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each asset we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports, which covers the current week and are published by Sunday before the new week begins. Daily we share any new events, forecasts or analysis that affect the current day. To achieve a full accurate understanding it is important that you study all of our data and analysis as a whole.

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This Week in Petroleum
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Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
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Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Monday, May 16, 2016

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time       Country           Auction

May 13 12:00 Iceland Holds bond auction

May 18 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn Feb 2026 Bund

May 18 17:20 Sweden Announces details of bond auction on May 25

May 19 10:30 Spain Holds bond auction

May 19 11:03 Sweden Hold bond auction

May 19 11:50 France Holds bond auction

May 20 11:03 Sweden Sek 1.992bn 0.5% Jun 2017 I/L bond