Weekly Analysis and Recommendations: The USD/CAD closed higher last week with the price action primarily mirroring the movement in the crude oil market.
The Forex pair finished the week, up 0.0027, or 0.20% at 1.3351.
Crude oil prices drifted sideways-to-lower on concerns over the global supply glut. According to the EIA, crude oil inventories stood at 487.3 million barrels, a little off the April record of 490.9 million. Prices aren’t likely to recover over the near-term because of resilient production during this low price environment.
Volume is likely to be below average this week because of the U.S. holiday on Thursday. This could trigger volatile two-sided price action over the short-term. Additionally, there may be counter-trend reactions to Tuesday’s U.S. GDP report and Wednesday’s durable goods report.
Over the long-run, however, expectations are for the rally to continue due to weak oil prices and higher U.S. Treasury yields.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Reports to Watch This Week:
Date Time Curr Events Forecast Previous
Mon Nov 23 |
10:00am ET |
USD |
Existing Home Sales |
5.39M |
5.55M |
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Tentative |
USD |
Fed Announcement |
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Tue Nov 24 |
8:30am ET |
USD |
Prelim GDP q/q |
2.0% |
1.5% |
||||
USD |
Goods Trade Balance |
-61.8B |
-58.6B |
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10:00am ET |
USD |
CB Consumer Confidence |
99.3 |
97.6 |
|||||
Wed Nov 25 |
8:30am ET |
USD |
Core Durable Goods Orders m/m |
0.5% |
-0.3% |
||||
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
273K |
271K |
||||||
USD |
Core PCE Price Index m/m |
0.1% |
0.1% |
||||||
USD |
Durable Goods Orders m/m |
1.6% |
-1.2% |
||||||
USD |
Personal Spending m/m |
0.3% |
0.1% |
||||||
10:00am ET |
USD |
New Home Sales |
500K |
468K |
|||||
USD |
Revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment |
93.2 |
93.1 |
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10:30am ET |
USD |
Crude Oil Inventories |
0.3M |
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Thu Nov 26 |
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Fri Nov 27 |
8:30am ET |
CAD |
RMPI m/m |
3.0% |
James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.