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Comex Gold Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – September 29, 2016 Forecast

By:
James Hyerczyk

December Comex Gold prices are expected to open flat as investors await direction from the U.S. stock indices and the U.S. Dollar. Traders seem to have

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December Comex Gold prices are expected to open flat as investors await direction from the U.S. stock indices and the U.S. Dollar. Traders seem to have put behind the OPEC deal to cut production reached late Wednesday and are now focusing on today’s U.S. GDP report. It is expected to show an increase of 1.3%. A better than expected number could under stocks and the dollar while pressuring gold prices.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. Momentum is also down. The main trend will turn up on a trade through $1347.80. A move through $1309.20 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The major retracement zone is $1321.80 to $1307.00. This zone provided support on September 16 when the market made a bottom at $1309.20 and on September 1 when gold made a bottom at $1305.50.

The 50% level at $1321.80 provided support on Wednesday and earlier today.

The short-term range is $1309.20 to $1347.80. Its retracement zone at $1328.50 to $1323.90 is controlling the short-term direction of the market.

The two retracement zones combine to form a key area at $1323.90 to $1321.80. This area has to hold in order to give gold a chance to rally. If it fails to hold then gold could break back to the $1309.00 to $1307.00 area.

FORECAST

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Daily December Comex Gold

BASED ON THE CURRENT PRICE AT $1324.00 AND THE EARLIER PRICE ACTION, THE DIRECTION OF THE GOLD MARKET TODAY IS LIKELY TO BE DETERMINED BY TRADER REACTION TO THE 50% LEVEL AT $1321.80.

A SUSTAINED MOVE OVER $1321.80 WILL SIGNAL THE PRESENCE OF BUYERS. THIS COULD TRIGGER A LABORED RALLY BECAUSE OF A SERIES OF POTENTIAL RESISTANCE POINTS AT $1323.90, $1327.20, $1327.80 AND $1328.50.

THE TRIGGER POINT FOR AN UPSIDE BREAKOUT IS $1328.50. THE NEXT POTENTIAL RESISTANCE OVER THIS LEVEL IS A DOWTRENDING ANGLE AT $1337.80.

A SUSTAINED MOVE UNDER $1321.80 WILL INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF SELLERS. THIS COULD LEAD TO A FAST BREAK INTO THE UPTRENDING ANGLE AT $1318.20. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY AN ANGLE AT $1313.70. THIS IS THE LAST POTENTIAL SUPPORT ANGLE BEFORE THE $1309.20 MAIN BOTTOM AND THE $1307.00 MAJOR FIBONACCI LEVEL.

WATCH THE PRICE ACTION AND READ THE ORDER FLOW AT $1321.80 TODAY. TRADER REACTION TO THIS LEVEL WILL SET THE DIRECTION FOR THE DAY.

About the Author

James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.

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