E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index (NQ) Futures Technical Analysis – August 26, 2016 Forecast

September E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are called steady-to-lower shortly before the cash market opening and a key speech by Fed Chair Janet Yellen at 1400 GMT, traders will be watching for any clues as to the timing of the next Fed rate hike.

Ahead of Yellen’s speech, the U.S. will release revisions to second-quarter GDP and the Goods Trade Balance report at 1230 GMT. At 1400 GMT, traders will get the chance to react to the latest data on consumer sentiment. The GDP report is expected to show a reading of 1.1%, slightly below the last reading of 1.2%.

Technically, the main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. It turned down earlier in the week when the swing bottom at 4772.00 was taken out.  A trade through 4836.75 will turn the main trend to up.

The main range is 4550.25 to 4836.75. Its retracement zone at 4693.50 to 4659.75 is the primary downside target.

The short-term range is 4836.75 to 4768.25. Its 50% level or pivot is at 4802.50. This is a potential upside target.

Based on the current price at 4779.00, the first upside targets are a pair of angles at 4788.75 and 4790.25. Since the trend is down, we could see a technical bounce on the first test of this area. However, it is also a trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.

A sustained move under 4788.75 will indicate the presence of sellers with 4768.25 the first target. The daily chart opens up to the downside under this level with 4693.50 an eventual downside target.

Overtaking 4790.25 will be a sign of strength, however, we expect to see a labored rally because of layered resistance at 4802.50, 4812.75 and 4824.75.

Watch for volatility and a possible two-sided trade today during Yellen’s speech. Look for a bearish tone on a sustained move under 4788.75 and a bullish tone on a sustained move over 4790.25.