E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – August 30, 2016 Forecast

September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are called lower shortly before the cash market opening. Volume is expected to be below average because of the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report on Friday and Monday’s U.S. Labor Day holiday.

Investors continue to digest the hawkish comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen and Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer on Friday, but they realize they can do nothing about them until we see what the jobs report has to offer.

Economic data today includes consumer confidence for August and the Case-Shiller home price index for June. Also weighing on prices early today is the ruling from the European Commission, which ordered Ireland to recover up to 13 billion Euros ($14 billion), plus interest, in back taxes from Apple. Apple shares are expected to open about 2.5 percent lower.

Technically, the main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The trend will turn up on a trade through $2191.50. A move through 2157.50 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The main range is 2141.50 to 2191.50. Its retracement zone at 2166.50 to 2160.50 provided support last week.

The short-term range is 2191.50 to 2157.50. Its retracement zone at 2174.50 to 2178.50 is currently being tested.

Based on the last price at 2174.50, the direction of the market today is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term Fib at 2178.50.

A sustained move over 2178.50 will signal the presence of buyers. The first objective is a resistance cluster at 2181.50. This zone may act like resistance on the first test today, but if taken out, we could see an acceleration into 2186.50. This is followed by 2189.00, the last potential resistance angle before the 2191.50 main top.

A sustained move under 2178.50 will indicate the presence of sellers. The daily chart is open to the downside with potential targets at 2174.50 and 2171.50. Crossing to the weak side of this angle will put the market in a bearish position.

Watch the price action and read the order flow at 2178.50 today. Trader reaction to this level will give us the direction of the index today.