E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – May 30, 2016 Forecast

The June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures market is closed Monday because of the U.S. Memorial Day bank holiday so we’ll take a look at the weekly chart which should offer you guidance all week especially when combined with the daily chart analysis.

The main trend is up according to the weekly swing chart. A trade through 2105.25 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through 2105.50 will form a new contract high. The main trend will turn to down on a trade through 2022.00.

The short-term range is 2105.25 to 2022.00. Its retracement zone is 2063.75 to 2073.50. This zone should be treated like support this week.

The main range is 1794.75 to 2105.25. Its retracement zone is 1950.00 to 1913.25. This zone could become the primary downside target if the trend turns to down.

Based on Friday’s close at 2097.25, the direction of the market this week is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the main top at 2105.25.

A sustained move over 2105.25 will indicate the presence of buyers. Taking out 2105.50 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. There is no upside objective since we will be looking at a new contract high. The only way to tell if we have reached resistance is if a closing price reversal top is formed on either the daily or the weekly chart.

The inability to overcome or sustain a rally over 2105.25 will signal the presence of sellers. This could create enough downside momentum to challenge the short-term Fibonacci level at 2073.50 and the short-term 50% level at 2063.50.

Taking out 2063.50 could drive the index into the long-term uptrending angle at 2050.75. This angle stopped the market two weeks ago when it provided support near the 2022.00 bottom. It has provided guidance since the week-ending February 12 so taking it out will signal an important shift in investor sentiment. This could trigger the start of a steep decline.

Watch the price action and read the order flow at 2105.25 this week. Trader reaction to this level will tell us if investors are still willing to buy strength at current price levels or if short-sellers have returned.