E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – September 26, 2016 Forecast

December E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading lower shortly before the cash market opening. Profit-taking after last week price surge and the shedding of risky assets is generating the selling pressure.

Traders may be paring positions ahead of the first presidential debate scheduled for 0100 GMT on Tuesday. Traders are saying that if candidate Clinton wins the debate the market should rally. A candidate Trump win could trigger a sharp break.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. Momentum appears to be shifting to the downside. We could also see a secondary lower top form if the weakness continues another day. A trade through 2182.75 will turn the main trend to up.

The main range is 2100.25 to 2172.75. Its retracement zone at 2136.50 to 2128.00 is the primary downside target. This zone is important because aggressive counter-trend buyers are going to show up in an effort to produce a secondary higher bottom. Sellers are going to try to pressure the index through this zone.

FORECAST

BASED ON THE CURRENT PRICE AND THE INTRADAY DOWNSIDE MOMENTUM, THE FIRST TARGET TODAY IS AN UPTRENDING ANGLE AT 2140.25. WE COULD SEE A TECHNICAL BOUNCE ON THE FIRST TEST OF THIS ANGLE.

IF 2140.25 FAILS AS SUPPORT THEN LOOK FOR THE BREAK TO CONTINUE INTO THE SHORT-TERM RETRACEMENT ZONE AT 2136.50 TO 2128.00.

IF SELLERS LIGHTEN UP ON THE DOWNSIDE THEN WE COULD SEE A QUICK INTRADAY RETRACEMENT INTO A DOWNTRENDING ANGLE AT 2158.75. OVERTAKING THIS ANGLE WILL MEAN THE BUYING IS GETTING STRONG WITH THE NEXT TARGET ANGLE COMING IN AT 2170.75.