Technical Check: USD/CHF, EUR/CHF, AUD/CHF and NZD/CHF

USD/CHF

Following the USDCHF’s bounce from short-term ascending trend-line support, forming part of “Rising-Wedge” bearish technical pattern, the pair rallied to a month’s high; however, it failed to surpass the formation resistance-line, needless to say a break above 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement of its January – February decline. The pair presently trades around 0.9960-50 support-zone, encompassing 50% Fibo and previously stated trend-line support, break of which can technically confirm the pair’s southward trajectory to re-test February lows, around 0.9660; though, 38.2% Fibo level, near 0.9890, and the 0.9850 support level might entertain the pair’s intermediate downside moves. If the pair bounces back from the current level, 1.0000 psychological magnet can act as immediate resistance before it could rise to the important 1.0025-30 area, comprising 61.8% Fibo and the pattern resistance. Should the pair manage to clear 1.0030 on a closing basis, the bearish technical pattern gets negated and can propel it to 1.0100 while further upside beyond 1.0100 may be capped by three month old descending trend-line resistance, presently around 1.0215. Moreover, pair’s capacity to clear the 1.0215, can fuel it to surpass the January month highs of 1.0260 and aim for November 2015 highs of 1.0330.

EUR/CHF

Break of eight month old ascending trend-line dragged the EURCHF prices toward testing the lowest level in a year; though, the pair presently struggles near 1.0830, including 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of its April 2015 – February 2016 upside, clearing which 200-day SMA, at 1.0785 now, might hold the pair’s further downside captive. If the pair fails to respect the longer-term SMA, it can further drop to 1.0700 and the 1.0570 support numbers. However, pair’s extended downside below 1.0570 might find it difficult to clear the 1.0530 – 1.0500 multiple support-zone. On the upside, 1.0880 and the previously mentioned trend-line, at 1.0940, are likely immediate resistances that the pair needs to surpass in order to aim for 1.1000 area. Given the pair’s sustained up-move beyond 1.1000, the 1.1060 can hold its intermediate up-moves prior to making it capable enough to surpass the February high of 1.1200.

AUD/CHF

Having bounced-off from 200-day SMA, the AUDCHF confronts with more than a year old descending trend-line resistance, at 0.7300 now, which if broken can immediately fuel the pair’s upside momentum towards 50% Fibonacci Retracement level of its January 2015 plunge, near 0.7400. Given the pair’s sustained north-run beyond 0.7400, it can run for the 0.7550 and the 61.8% Fibo, near 0.7640, break of which opens the door for its rally towards 0.7740 and the 0.7880. However, pair’s inability to close beyond important resistance-line, as happened during early December 2015, can again drag the prices to 38.2% Fibo, near 0.7160 and the 200-day SMA of 0.7085. Should the pair closes below 0.7085, the 0.6990 and the 23.6% Fibo level of 0.6870, are likely consecutive downside numbers that it could witness during sustained downtrend.

NZD/CHF

NZDCHF seems again heading to confront with the 0.6700 mark trend-line resistance which has been confining the pair’s upside since December 2015. Should it manage to clear the same trend-line mark on a closing basis, it can quickly rise to 0.6770 and the December highs of 0.6880. Moreover, pair’s further up-move beyond 0.6880 can help it test the 61.8% FE of its August – December 2015 upside, near 0.7030; though 0.6940-50 might act as intermediate resistance for the pair. Meanwhile, pair’s another failure to break the trend-line can drag the prices down to 23.6% Fibo level of 0.6620 and then to the 0.6520 immediate support levels. Given the pair’s sustained south-run below 0.6520, also clearing the 0.6500 round figure mark, can further fetch the prices to 38.2% Fibo level of 0.6450 and to the 0.6360-50 multiple support-area.

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