Natural Gas Price Forecast: Critical Support and Resistance Levels

Intraday Pullback Follows Four-Day High

Natural gas reached a four-day high of $3.23 on Thursday before sellers regained control, leading to an intraday pullback. Weakness remains at the time of writing, with trading continuing in the lower third of the day’s range. However, strength was indicated on Wednesday.

Following a decline to an 11-day low of $2.90, natural gas found support near a small uptrend line. Buyers stepped in from there pushing price to a new daily high of $3.17 and securing a strong close near the high. The 10-day average has converged with the 50-day moving average and it is poised to cross above, confirming short-term bullish momentum.

Consolidation Between Trend Lines

Nevertheless, natural gas is consolidating between a downtrend line and an uptrend line. These lines converge around April 15, indicating that one of the lines will be broken before then and help determine the next direction.

Resistance Targets on a Breakout

A breakout above the downtrend line could encounter resistance from around $3.45 to $3.49, defined by the 50% retracement of the most recent downswing and the most recent lower swing high, respectively. Above that, the falling 200-day moving average around $3.55 marks another significant area, although it exists within a consolidation environment rather than an active trending phase. Initial upside targets extend to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $3.60, the 100-day average (now at $3.64 and falling), and a long-term trendline.

Historical Declines and Recovery Legs

Natural gas experienced a 48.7% decline from a new multi-year peak at $5.02 in December. That exceeded the previous larger corrections since the 2024 bottom, which saw declines of 48% and 38%, respectively. This suggests that the 48.7% drop was overextended to the downside, having fallen too far too fast. The first leg of the subsequent rally reached the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, while the second leg up is indicated by the recent higher swing low at $2.81.

Key Support and Potential Bearish Risk

Key near-term support is now at Wednesday’s higher swing low of $2.90. A break below this level would signal renewed bearish pressure, putting at risk the February swing low at $2.81 and the January trend low at $2.58. The direction taken from these support and resistance levels will ultimately define whether the short-term bullish momentum can continue or if the previous downtrend reasserts itself.

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