Crude Oil Price Forecast: Key Support Holds, Short-Term Upside

Trend Highs Tested, Pullback Follows

Crude oil established a slightly higher trend high of $101.83 on Thursday but it failed to hold gains. The prior high of $101.19 was exceeded briefly before sellers regained control. Regardless, a higher daily high and higher daily low were generated. This followed a successful test of support near the 10-day moving average on Wednesday. Wednesday’s closing price was strong, in the top quarter of the day’s range and at a new daily closing high of $101.13.

Strong Close Highlights Momentum Shift

Wednesday’s closing price was the highest for crude oil since July 2022. It followed a breakdown below the lows of the prior two days, showing sellers in charge, before buyers stepped in and reversed direction to close bullishly, near the prior day’s high of $101.19. Although bullish momentum was lost on Thursday, these short-term signals suggest that the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the prior decline at $103.23 or the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $110.40 may be tested as resistance before any advance begins to lose strength.

10-Day Average Defines Critical Support

Nonetheless, the 10-day moving average, now at $93.54, defines dynamic support for the rally since it was reclaimed on February 18. It was successfully tested as support twice during the ascent that followed. Those two bounces from the area near the 10-day line mark it as key near-term support. If crude oil remains above the 10-day average, there remains a chance for further upside. In addition, Wednesday established a higher swing low for the bounce. A drop below that level would signal a bearish reversal, as it would likely violate the integrity of the short-term advance.

Lower Targets and Broader Trend Structure

If the 10-day average fails as support, the 20-day moving average at $81.72 and rising becomes the next key lower target. The higher swing low at $76.83 from March defines the large bullish trend structure and represents another critical support area, reinforcing the connection between the current short-term consolidation and the broader uptrend. How crude oil reacts to these support levels will determine whether the recent bullish signals can continue or if the prior downtrend will reassert itself.

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