My September ETF number survives fresh data only because of one Monday, and the creation runs that favoured a rally in 2026 gave no edge in 2025. I ran those tests because Bitcoin closed 21 September at $86,597 after the largest creation day of 2026, then gave back 3.6% in a week while the funds kept taking in money. Glassnode called the $83,000 to $86,000 band a ceiling on 9 September and said price traded above it on 23 September, and by 4 October Bitcoin had closed at $86,490, above the $85,000 to $85,500 wall of sell orders its 30 September report found. With the two Mt. Gox addresses still unspent, I think Bitcoin closes at $90,000 before $82,000 at about the odds history gives.
Bitcoin Eyes $90,000 as ETF Inflow Runs Fail Their 2025 Test
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Key Points:
- My September ETF number held up on fresh data, until I took out one Monday and it faded into noise.
- The ETF case for October, that inflow runs lead to rallies, looked like an edge in 2026 and then failed a 2025 test I had not run before.
- Two Mt. Gox addresses still hold 34,358 BTC unspent before the trustee’s 31 October deadline, and the 2024 payout can’t tell us what a sale would do.