BTC/USD, GBP/USD, XLE and WMT Forecasts – Dollar Slips, Energy and Quality Favored

BTC/USD Technical Analysis

Bitcoin is a market that I am watching very closely. I do think we are in the midst of turning things around and one cannot help but notice that somewhere around 74,150 there is a little bit of resistance that it looks like we are trying to get beyond.

If we can break above the earlier highs near the 74,400 level, I think it might be worth having a go. I believe that Bitcoin has seen the worst. Now the question is, can we get any upward momentum? Breaking the 50-day EMA and the 72,000 level was a good sign, but there are a lot of wounded traders out there when it comes to this market, so you are going to have to be in this one for the long haul. I don’t think this is a quick move.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The British pound is something I am watching. I think a quick bounce from here makes a certain amount of sense. We have seen the 1.3250 level offer support, and it is worth noting that the US dollar is drifting a little bit lower despite the fact that yields are going higher.

With this being the case, I think a run toward the 200-day EMA makes a certain amount of sense, which is at the 1.3372 level. After that, we could even go as high as 1.35 and still not change anything. Consolidation, a little bit of return to the bulk of the choppiness is what we are looking at here.

XLE Technical Analysis

The energy sector is something I am definitely watching, and I think this one almost immediately is going to be racing to the upside. If we can break above the top of the candlestick from the Thursday session, that for me is the buy signal.

Probably looking for a move to 60 initially. I don’t know if it happens today. I think it will take a couple of days. This is a safer way to play the energy and specifically the oil markets, but it also gives you exposure to some of the companies that go beyond just drilling oil. If we can break the high at basically 58.30, then I think we will go toward 60.

WMT Technical Analysis

Walmart is an interesting pick, but it is a market that you can’t argue with. It has been very reliable, and it looks like we are starting to rally again. A break above the 128 level for me is a very bullish sign and I do think that a lot of traders are watching this company as the latest earnings call was quite strong.

The outlook is actually fairly strong as well, despite the fact that global supply chains are hurting. The reality is that Walmart bases a lot more of its stuff locally in the US than it used to, so it doesn’t quite have the vulnerabilities that Amazon would have. Walmart is certainly the stronger of the two.

Think of this more or less as a flight to quality, but it was in an uptrend anyway. The shift in their profit mix, higher margin revenue from Walmart Connect, which is their advertising, and Walmart+ memberships are starting to offset what is normally a very thin margin for retail. With that being said and the AI-powered logistics cutting down costs, Walmart looks like it is going to continue to grind. I expect it to revisit the highs at 135 over the next several weeks.