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Crude Oil Crisis Deepens as US Emergency Reserve Releases Run Out of Steam

Crude Oil Crisis Deepens as US Emergency Reserve Releases Run Out of Steam

By: 
Tim Duggan

Key Points:

  • Gulf crude loadings ran at 11.4 mbd last week, 76% of pre-war, leaving 2.8 mbd missing even after the extra 0.8 mbd the UAE is piping to Fujairah.
  • Washington is nearly out of tools: the SPR has fallen from 415 mb to 283 mb and stopped releasing, the heating oil loan covers two hours of US demand, and Europe is still holding back 104 mb.
  • Brent closed at $116.72, above April’s high, and pushed the US 10-year yield to 4.99% on inflation risk, which hits long-payoff bets like AI data centres hardest.

I used to live in a sleepy little coastal village along the Dublin coastline, where I would venture down to the local swim spot year round and dunk myself into the cold ocean and heaving swells. A life-affirming ordeal which I highly recommend. There was a kind and enthusiastic retired older guy called Dermot, in his 70s yet looking only about 55. He would swim all day, getting out for lengthy breaks to chat to everyone, clutching his homemade ginger tea. “Ah sure, it’s great when you get out, isn’t it,” he would say. “Just like it’s fantastic when you stop banging your head against the wall.” Dermot has since gone on to the big water, but I think on his words every now and then. As traders and risk managers, we bash and wrangle against the narratives, the waves of conflicting information and the cold price action. But when we step back and out of the ocean, we gain clarity and perspective on the trauma we put ourselves through.