Gold fixed at $4,013.30 on 23 October, 26% below its January record, and five single days took 29.5 of the 29.8 log points it lost while the 10-year real yield rose 10 basis points on those days. On 16 October gold still sat at least $1,424 above where 2021-24 rate and dollar sensitivities would put it, and that premium has moved with the SPDR trust’s holdings. I expect gold sideways near $4,012 into mid-December, and lower if the trust drops below 999 tonnes. Below, I’ll rebuild the fall from primary records, test what rates explain and count how setups like this have played out.
Gold Stalls Near $4,012 Unless the SPDR Trust Drops Below 999 Tonnes
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Key Points:
- Gold's five largest one-day drops since its January record took 29.5 log points, nearly all of its fall to 23 October.
- Real yields rose 10 basis points and the dollar 1.7% across those days, worth under 2 of the 29.5 points by my regression.
- The SPDR trust's holdings have tracked gold's premium over rates since 2025, and lost 18.5 tonnes from 21 to 23 October.