Natural Gas Analysis: January Eyes $4.75 as El Nino Sells Winter
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Key Points:
- Henry Hub settled Friday 7 August at $2.662 for September, $4.027 for January 2027. My call is January to $4.50 to $4.75 by 31 October. The front month view I got wrong in July is on the record below, unedited.
- NOAA's 9 July discussion puts an 81% chance of a very strong El Nino across October to December. The desk reads that as fewer January cold shots.
- NOAA's own researchers read the same regime as a weaker late winter polar vortex, hence more frequent major disruptions.
Natural gas fell all July. The winter strip did not, and that left January 2027 carrying a $1.365 premium over the front of the curve. Most of the desk reads it as stale insurance from last winter. I read it as the only part of this curve priced for what an El Nino January actually does, and the agency everyone quotes for the bear case is where I get that.