HOME
PREMIUM
Nikkei 225 Analysis: Is the Yen Still Driving Tokyo as Intervention Risk Looms?
Yen Carry Trade

Nikkei 225 Analysis: Is the Yen Still Driving Tokyo as Intervention Risk Looms?

By: 
Navnoor Bawa
Published: Sep 3, 2026, 09:25 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

  • The Nikkei 225 closed 64,325.64 on September 2, down 2.85%, 11.11% below its June 25 high of 72,366.34. My target is 63,500 by the end of September, and I'd sell strength nearer 65,200-65,800 rather than chase this level.
  • On September 1 the 30-year JGB fixed at 4.131%, highest of the 6,614 observations the Ministry of Finance has published since September 1999. The 40-year did the same at 4.145%.
  • This year the yield stopped meaning what it meant. Through 2025 a rising 2-year went with a firmer index at +0.41. In 2026 every one of those signs reverses, and the 30-year becomes the strongest driver on the board.
In this article:

Japan’s long bond made a record on September 1 and the equity market fell 2.85% the next day. I don’t think the second was caused by the first, and the useful finding sits under both. I’m looking for 63,500 into month-end, and I’m wrong if the long end sells off and this index doesn’t follow.