The oil market just experienced its sharpest selloff of the year on news that a peace deal between the United States and Iran could end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Traders dumped barrels as fast as they could on the assumption that Middle East supply disruptions were about to end. But the deal is not signed. The Strait is not open. And while the market was busy pricing in a ceasefire, U.S. crude inventories quietly dropped to their lowest level since March 1985. The question nobody is asking yet is what happens if the peace deal stalls and the physical market is already running on fumes.