Oil News: Crude Oil Futures Straddle 200-Day MA as Hormuz Risks Persist
Key Points:
- Crude oil outlook depends on whether Hormuz shipping normalizes or fresh disruptions lift risk premium further.
- Crude oil traders watch the 200-day moving averages as Strait of Hormuz risks cloud the Iran-U.S. ceasefire.
- WTI and Brent face a pivotal technical test as traders await Doha talks and shipping traffic updates.
The crude oil market spent three weeks removing war premium on the assumption that the ceasefire would hold and the Strait of Hormuz would reopen without incident. Over the weekend that assumption took a projectile. A Panamanian-flagged tanker carrying more than two million barrels of crude was struck while transiting the Strait. The U.S. hit Iranian air-defense sites and military infrastructure near the waterway. Iran launched missiles and drones at U.S. positions in Bahrain and Kuwait. Both sides agreed to halt further attacks afterward but the damage to the market’s confidence was already done. Shipping data showed traffic slowing through the Strait by Sunday night and the buyers who had been absent for weeks showed up Monday morning before the opening bell.