Silver Price Outlook: Cooler PCE and Strong Positioning Target $63-$68
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Key Points:
- Silver reclaimed the $58.12 50-day EMA after softer June PCE data and a hawkish Fed hold, strengthening the near-term bullish setup.
- CFTC positioning stayed near pre-crash levels while the gold-silver ratio compressed to 69.6, supporting a move toward $59.97 and then $63 to $68.
- A daily close below $56.81 invalidates the bullish case and reopens $55.72, while a sixth straight physical deficit supports the longer-term floor.
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Two tests in two days and silver passed both. Wednesday brought a 9 – 3 hawkish hold, three officials voting to hike. Thursday brought June PCE, and core inflation cooled. Silver cleared $58.12 on the second one and closed at $58.99. More interesting is what has not happened. The crowd that never left after January’s crash is still there. Two events that could have flushed it did not.