Silver’s quarter-end book ranks as the eighth thinnest of 507 CFTC reports by contracts but the 51st largest by dollars. I backtested the thin-book screen on every weekly report since 2017, and it did no better than chance. I also checked silver after every Fed increase since 1994 and found no reliable effect. So my base case follows this window’s history, a rise of under a percent to $66.50 by 16 October.
Silver Price Targets $66.50 Ahead of PCE as Fed Hike Risk Persists
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Silver’s deceptively thin COMEX market still carries $32.77 billion in notional value. With crucial PCE inflation data approaching and another Fed hike partly priced, could its post-meeting surge accelerate toward $66.50?