EUR/USD Daily Fundamental Forecast – October 20, 2016

The EURUSD pair came under severe pressure again for the second day running even though there was no noticeable USD strength in the market. This should be of some serious concern to a lot of buyers of this pair as the pair cannot seem to make a serious run upwards despite lack of USD strength and despite not having anything fundamental going against the euro. The pair continues to languish near its range lows and it looks like the support region between 1.0900 and 1.0950 would come under serious attack pretty soon. If this region gives way, then it opens up the path towards 1.0750.

The uncertainty over the Brexit process isnt helping matters anyway as such. So far, this risk was concentrated only on the pound but it seems to be that this risk has begun to start weighing on the euro as well as the Euro and the UK leaders have been trading charges back and forth and have publicly said that they are going to make the process as difficult for the other party as possible. This certainly isnt going to give any confidence to the investors even though fundamentally there might be nothing wrong with the UK or the Euro economies.

Looking ahead to today we have the Minimim Bid rate from the euro region and also the ECB press conference scheduled close towards the US session and this is likely to bring in some volatility depending on what is said during the conference. The hard line towards the Brexit process is likely to continue but any mention of QE tapering would help the pair finally bounce off its lows. Any such action is likely to meet resistance at 1.1020 and then 1.1120 which are likely to be the next targets. A short at these levels would not be advisable and our users would be well served to either try for longs with tight stop loss or wait for a clean break of 1.0900 to go short.

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