EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for September 30, 2016

The EUR/USD is trading lower at the mid-session on concerns about the financial health of Deutsche Bank. The trade is also being influenced by fresh economic news showing the rate of inflation in the Euro Zone doubled in September, although unemployment remained high in the region, according to data released by Eurostat.

Euro Zone inflation rose to 0.4 percent in September, from 0.2 percent in August, according to data released on Friday. The latest read of unemployment in the Euro Zone remained at 10.1 percent in August, the same as July’s figure.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The minor trend is also down and momentum is also pointing to the downside.

The short-term range is 1.1122 to 1.1279. Its 50% or pivot level is 1.1201. The EUR/USD is trading below this price, which is another sign of weakness.

FORECAST

BASED ON THE CURRENT PRICE AT 1.1182 (0954 GMT), THE DIRECTION OF THE MARKET IS BEING CONTROLLED BY A PRICE CLUSTER AT 1.1192 TO 1.1199.

LOOK FOR DOWNSIDE PRESSURE TODAY AS LONG AS THE EUR/USD REMAINS UNDER 1.1192. THIS COULD CREATE ENOUGH DOWNSIDE MOMENTUM TO CHALLENGE THE NEAREST ANGLE AT 1.1157. THIS IS FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY ANOTHER ANGLE AT 1.1140. THIS IS THE LAST MAJOR UPTRENDING ANGLE BEFORE THE 1.1122 MAIN BOTTOM.

TAKING OUT THE DOUBLE-BOTTOM AT 1.1122 COULD TRIGGER A STEEP ACCELERATION TO THE DOWNSIDE.

THE ONLY WAY TO AVOID A RAPID SELL-OFF IS FOR THE EUR/USD TO OVERCOME THE SHORT-TERM 50% LEVEL AT 1.1201. IF THIS OCCURS THEN WE COULD SEE A SHORT-COVERING RALLY INTO THE NEXT RESISTANCE ANGLE AT 1.1239.