Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Gold Holds $5,000 as Silver Stalls Near $82 – Break or Fade?

Market Overview

Gold price (XAU/USD) started the week on a strong bullish tone and rose to near the 5,046 level. However, the rise was mainly supported by a weaker US dollar and China’s central bank buying gold for the 15th consecutive month. Apart from this, ongoing worries about the Federal Reserve’s independence and global tensions have increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.

Meanwhile, Silver is trading at $81.97, showing strong gains of 5.07%. Silver is also following gold’s upward trend, as ongoing concerns over global economic uncertainties continue to boost its appeal as a safe-haven asset.

Weak Dollar and Fed Concerns Boost Gold’s Recovery

As we mentioned, the precious metal is continue to gain traction as the US dollar is remain under pressure. Hence, the softer dollar usually makes gold more attractive for investors. Meanwhile, traders are waiting for the delayed US jobs report for January, which is expected later on Wednesday and could move the market.

In the meantime, the ongoing concerns about the US Federal Reserve are also supporting gold prices. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said there could be an investigation of Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh if interest rates are not lowered. These concerns about the Fed’s independence are keeping the dollar weak and pushing gold higher.

China’s Gold Buying and US-Iran Talks Keep Markets on Alert

Apart from this, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has been buying gold for the 15th month in a row, with its holdings rising slightly to 74.19 million ounces. China, being the world’s biggest gold buyer, is helping push gold prices higher with its steady demand.

At the same time, all eyes are on the US-Iran talks. Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian called the Friday meeting “a step forward” but warned against threats. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said talks must stay calm and avoid pressure.

Former President Trump said another meeting will happen early this week and warned of serious consequences if no deal is made. Traders are watching closely, as any progress could affect gold prices.

Gold Prices Forecast: Holds $5,000 as Buyers Test Trend Support Ahead of a Breakout

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading close to $5,017 on the 2-hour chart, continuing its rebound from the February low near $4,490. The latest candlesticks show higher lows and smaller pullbacks, which points to steady buying interest. The price has moved back above the 50-EMA near $5,000 and is now approaching resistance at $5,090, a level that recently limited gains.

Overall, the setup for gold remains positive. Gold is staying above the rising trendline from early February and is well above the 200-EMA near $4,935, which still acts as support. The rebound also matches the 50% to 61.8% Fibonacci retracement zone from the last selloff, highlighting the importance of this range.

Momentum indicators suggest the market is stabilizing. The RSI is around the mid-50s, showing some strength but not yet overbought. If gold breaks above $5,090, it could move toward $5,217. If it falls below $4,935, it may drop to $4,805.

Trade idea: Consider buying if gold dips near $4,950, with a target of $5,200 and a stop below $4,880.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Tests Descending Trendline as Bounce Loses Momentum Near $82

Silver (XAG/USD) is trading around $81.40 on the 2-hour chart after bouncing from the $68.00 to $70.00 demand zone. The recovery has been steady, but recent candlesticks have smaller bodies and upper wicks, which suggests that buying is slowing as the price nears resistance. Silver is now testing a descending trendline from late January that has stopped every recovery so far.

Looking at the overall setup, the market is still in a corrective phase. The price is below the 200-EMA near $92.25 and the 50-EMA around $84.50, so the broader trend remains down. The rebound has reached the 38.2% to 50% Fibonacci zone, which is often where countertrend moves slow down. The RSI is near the mid-40s, showing some stability but no sign of a bullish breakout.

If silver is rejected near the trendline, it could fall to $73.40 first, then possibly to the $64.10 support area. A clear move above $84.50 would be needed to change the short-term outlook.

Trade idea: Consider selling if silver reaches $82.50 to $83.00, with a target of $73.50 and a stop above $85.00.