Technical Update: USDCHF, GBPCHF, AUDCHF and NZDCHF

USDCHF

Even if the symmetrical triangle confines immediate USDCHF moves, a closing break below 0.9860, comprising formation support-line, can quickly push the pair towards 50% Fibonacci Retracement of its August – November rally, around 0.9800 – 0.9790 area; however, four-month old ascending trend-line, near 0.9750-45, could restrict its further downside. Given the bears’ dominance following 0.9745 break, the pair can stretch the south-run to 200-day SMA, presently near 0.9650, breaking which it can be deprived of near-term up-move and may plunge to sub-0.9500 mark. Alternatively, a bounce from the current levels is likely witnessing 38.2% Fibo, near 0.9920, as an immediate resistance prior to targeting the triangle resistance-line, around 0.9960. Moreover, sustained break above 0.9960, also clearing the 1.0000 psychological magnet, can fuel the pair’s rally to surpass 1.0200 round figure mark with 1.0090 and 1.0130-40 being intermediate resistances.

GBPCHF

AUDCHF’s pullback from 100-day SMA and four month old ascending trend-line support, also including 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of its September 2014 – August 2015 downside, seems finding it difficult to break 0.7200 round figure mark during the year-end thin trading sessions; however, mentioned trend-line support, presently around 0.7110, may hold the pair’s near-term up-move. If the trend-line support fails to stop the pair’s downside, 100-day SMA and 23.6% Fibo, near 0.7050-45, may give another chance for the pair traders to expect a bounce, negating which the pair might progress in its southward trajectory to 0.6950-45 and to the January lows of 0.6850. On the upside, a daily close beyond 0.7200 may trigger the pair’s advance to 0.7250, the 0.7285-95 and the 38.2% Fibo, near 0.7375, prior to targeting the fifteen month old descending trend-line resistance, near 0.7485-90.

NZDCHF

Failure to break 0.6460-50 support-zone triggered the NZDCHF bounce, which presently fuels the pair towards eight months old descending trend-line resistance, around 0.6810-20, that could restrict its additional upside, failing to which can help the pair test 0.6930-35 resistance-zone. If the bulls accelerate pair’s north-run beyond 0.6935, the 0.7055-60 is likely an intermediate halt during its rise to 0.7140-50, including 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement of January – August downside. Though, inability to counter the mentioned trend-line resistance keep favoring the pair’s pullback to 0.6700 mark, followed by the 0.6610 – 0.6600 area, comprising 200-day SMA and the 38.2% Fibo. On a further decline below 0.6600, an ascending trend-line support, connecting August lows to recent lows, at 0.6550, may limit the pair’s downside, breaking which 0.6500 may offer a small stop for the pair’s southward trajectory to 0.6300 – 0.6290 area, including 23.6% Fibo level.

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