WTI crude fell below $63 per barrel, adding to weekly losses as geopolitical tensions eased and worries about supply disruptions faded. Better diplomatic signals lowered the risk premium that had pushed prices up earlier this year, when markets rose on concerns about instability and temporary output cuts.
Market focus has also turned to global crude trade, especially in Asia, where uncertainty about future import patterns still affects sentiment.
Even with recent declines, oil and natural gas markets are still sensitive to geopolitical news because supply remains tight in some key areas. With plenty of global supply and less risk, short-term energy forecasts suggest prices will likely stabilize instead of rising again soon.
Natural Gas (NG) is trading near $3.19 on the 4-hour chart after a strong rally stalled below $3.65 and reversed. Recent candlesticks are smaller with upper wicks, showing that buying pressure is fading rather than panic selling. The price is now testing a clear support zone between $3.10 and $3.00, which was a breakout base before.
The pullback is happening near the rising 50-EMA at $3.15, while the 200-EMA at $2.10 is much lower, confirming the overall trend is still up. The price is consolidating in a shallow ascending channel, not breaking trend support. The RSI is in the mid-40s, showing momentum has reset but is not bearish.
Key resistance is at $3.50 and then $3.65. If the price falls below $3.00, it could drop to $2.65.
Trade idea: Buy near $3.05, target $3.50, stop below $2.95.
WTI crude oil (USOIL) is trading near $62.80 on the 4-hour chart after falling back from the $65.10 to $66.45 resistance area. Recent candlesticks are smaller with mixed wicks, showing traders are uncertain rather than selling heavily. The price is now sitting on the rising trendline from early January, which has supported the market so far.
The market remains above the 200-EMA near $59.80, so the medium-term trend is still intact. However, it has slipped below the 50-EMA at $63.05, adding some short-term pressure. Support is at $62.70 and $61.20, with resistance near $65.10. The RSI is in the mid-40s, indicating slower momentum but not an oversold market.
Trade idea: Buy around $62.20, target $65.00, and set a stop just below $61.00.
Brent crude (UKOIL) is trading near $67.20 on the 4-hour chart, drifting lower after several failed attempts to break the $69.00 to $70.50 resistance zone. Recent candlesticks are small with mixed wicks, showing the market is consolidating rather than breaking down. The price is now right on the rising trendline from mid-January, which is an important short-term level.
The market is trading around the 50-EMA at $67.30, while the 200-EMA at $65.10 is still rising, which keeps the broader trend positive. Support is at $67.00 and $65.40, with resistance near $69.05. The RSI is in the mid-40s, showing momentum is fading but not oversold.
Trade idea: Buy near $66.80, target $69.00, stop below $65.40.
Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.