The Week Ahead: Markets Eye Jobs, CPI, and Fed Commentary

Market Overview

U.S. equities ended the week mixed as sector rotation accelerated. The S&P 500 slipped 0.10% to 6,932.30, the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.84% to 23,031.21, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average outperformed, rising 2.50% to a record 50,115.68. Tech weakness, concentrated in software and semiconductors, weighed on growth indices, but strength in industrials, energy, and financials kept broader sentiment intact.

Investors continue to reprice large-cap technology as AI-driven disruption concerns and surging capital expenditure plans pressure valuations. Software stocks have declined nearly 25% over the past three months, reflecting both competitive uncertainty and higher spending across major platforms.

Meanwhile, “old economy” sectors have reasserted leadership. Industrials, materials, and consumer staples are benefitting from improving demand expectations as the manufacturing cycle shows early signs of expansion. The latest ISM data confirmed the strongest U.S. factory activity since 2022, supporting the view that economic growth remains firm.

With Fed officials signaling that rate cuts may stay on hold, risk appetite in speculative assets like crypto and precious metals has cooled. Still, the equity uptrend appears intact, supported by earnings resilience and a more balanced market breadth.

Economic Releases & Notable Earnings

Monday, Feb 9
Before the Open:
• Becton Dickinson (BDX), est. $2.81
• Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF), est. -$0.62
• Monday.com (MNDY), est. $0.92
• Waters (WAT), est. $4.51
Economic Releases:
• No releases scheduled
After the Close:
• Aecom Tech (ACM), est. $1.17
• Goodyear Tire (GT), est. $0.49
• Principal Financial (PFG), est. $2.23

Tuesday, Feb 10
Before the Open:
• Coca-Cola (KO), est. $0.56
• McDonald’s (MCD), est. $3.04
• Spotify (SPOT), est. $2.72
Economic Releases:
• 11:00 GMT – NFIB Small Business Index, forecast 99.9 (prior 99.5)
• 13:30 GMT – Retail Sales m/m, forecast +0.4% (prior +0.6%)
• 13:30 GMT – Core Retail Sales m/m, forecast +0.4% (prior +0.5%)
After the Close:
• Cisco (CSCO), est. $1.02
• Gilead Sciences (GILD), est. $1.81
• Lyft (LYFT), est. $0.13

Wednesday, Feb 11
Before the Open:
• Shopify (SHOP), est. $0.51
• CVS Health (CVS), est. $1.00
• Hilton (HLT), est. $2.02
Economic Releases:
• 13:30 GMT – Non-Farm Employment Change, forecast +70K (prior +50K)
• 13:30 GMT – Unemployment Rate, forecast 4.4% (prior 4.4%)
• 13:30 GMT – Average Hourly Earnings m/m, forecast +0.3% (prior +0.3%)
After the Close:
• Motorola Solutions (MSI), est. $4.35
• HubSpot (HUBS), est. $2.99
• Equinix (EQIX), est. $9.05

Thursday, Feb 12
Before the Open:
• Zoetis (ZTS), est. $1.40
• Restaurant Brands (QSR), est. $0.95
• Crocs (CROX), est. $1.91
Economic Releases:
• 13:30 GMT – Unemployment Claims, forecast 222K (prior 231K)
• 15:00 GMT – Existing Home Sales, forecast 4.22M (prior 4.35M)
After the Close:
• Airbnb (ABNB), est. $0.67
• Applied Materials (AMAT), est. $2.21
• Coinbase (COIN), est. $1.01

Friday, Feb 13
Before the Open:
• Wendy’s (WEN), est. $0.14
• Magna (MGA), est. $1.80
Economic Releases:
• 13:30 GMT – CPI m/m, forecast +0.3% (prior +0.3%)
• 13:30 GMT – Core CPI m/m, forecast +0.3% (prior +0.2%)
• 13:30 GMT – CPI y/y, forecast +2.5% (prior +2.7%)

Central Bank Activity

Monday features comments from Waller (Governor) at 18:30 GMT and Bostic (Atlanta Fed) at 20:15 GMT. On Tuesday, Logan (Dallas Fed) speaks at 18:00 GMT, followed by Hammack (Governor) at 17:00 GMT. Additional remarks from Logan and Miran are scheduled Thursday evening. Fed commentary will be parsed for clarity on inflation progress and the likelihood of rate cuts later this year, with markets sensitive to any hawkish tone.

Technical Outlook

Weekly Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Dow Jones: 50,115.68 (+2.50%), support at 45,728.93, 44,876.43 (52-week SMA), 43,340.68, resistance at 50,169.65.

Weekly Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC)

Nasdaq: 23,031.21 (-1.84%), support at 21,898.29, 20,886.84 (52-week SMA), 20,560.17, 19,334.98, resistance at 24,019.99.

Weekly S&P 500 Index (SPX)

S&P 500: 6,932.30 (-0.10%), support at 6,521.92, 6,311.90 (52-week SMA), 6,212.69, 5,943.23, resistance at 7,002.28.

All major indices remain above rising 52-week SMAs, confirming an intact uptrend.

Outlook

Market focus this week is on Wednesday’s jobs data and Friday’s CPI report. Modest payroll growth and a steady unemployment rate should support expectations that the Fed remains patient before cutting rates. Any upside surprise in CPI could reinforce a cautious policy stance and test rate-sensitive sectors.

Earnings season continues with reports from Coca-Cola, Cisco, Shopify, andair Airbnb offering key reads on consumer and tech trends. Rotation toward industrials and financials is likely to persist as investors seek earnings stability outside tech.verall, the setup favors consolidation rather than correction. With no signs of recession and fundamentals still supportive, the bull market remains underpinned by expanding sector breadth and steady economic growth.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.