US Government Shutdown Results Into Uncertain Week Ahead

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US Government Shutdown Results Into Uncertain Week Ahead

US Government Shutdown Results Into Uncertain Week Ahead

Ongoing uncertainty over the restarting of US government, which initiated its first partial shutdown in 17 years on October 1st, posed serious challenges over the future direction of Federal Reserve. The US government remained on the shutdown mode for the seventh consecutive day as Obama administration remained intact over their demand of hike in debt limit by Congress without any conditions. The nation will fall short of its borrowing capacity on October 17th when the $16.7 trillion debt limit expires. The US government would be left with only $30 billion in cash at that time, which would be lesser than their subsequent expenditures. Given the US government’s failure to raise debt limit, they may face first ever default in history. Another issue which demands attention is the tapering of monetary measures by Federal Reserve. US Department of Labor remained closed resulting into no release of critical labor market indicators, fuelling uncertainty over the strength of US Labor market, a key indicator for tapering decision. US Dollar index (I.USDX) kept on weakening for the fifth consecutive week considering all these pessimism. GBP weakened for the first time in five weeks as UK Manufacturing PMI and Halifax House Price Index fell below expectations while Australian Dollar strengthened by taking support of the Chinese Manufacturing indicators. Japanese Yen gained for the second consecutive week as the uncertainty over US market supported haven demand of Japanese currency.

For the week coming by, we have less number of important economic indicators from US including FOMC Minutes, Weekly Jobless Claims, Core Retail Sales and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment. Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Decision seems the only UK event in the upcoming week. Moreover, Australia is scheduled to release Employment Change and Unemployment Rate figures coupled with Bank of Japan’s Minutes of its most recent meeting. The detailed list of economic indicators for the upcoming week is given here.

Important Events at US:

FOMC Minutes: FOMC is scheduled to release its Minutes of last Meeting on Wednesday. The minutes carries high importance as the decision of not to taper took place during that meeting. The release could provide further insight of future action by Federal Reserve as well as what restricted the tapering of $85 billion monthly monetary easing program.

Jobless Claims: Though being a weekly release of US unemployment claims, this release could weigh more this time as the Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment figures were cancelled due to Department of Labor’s closure last week. The figure, scheduled to release on Thursday indicates a minor increase to jobless claims to 308K from prior release of 307K. As the figure being the only labor market indicator scheduled to release this week, any significant change in actual release may fuel higher volatility in forex market.

Core Retail Sales: US Department of Commerce is scheduled to release Core Retail Sales figure on Friday. The forecast bears higher optimism showing 0.4% rise as compared to previous release of 0.1% increment in Core Retail Sales. Given the actual release matches forecast, US Dollar can witness a strong support.

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment: The final economic release scheduled to be release from US is a Consumer Sentiment by University of Michigan. The market expectation indicates a fall in consumer sentiment to 76 level as compared to 77.5 being the previous figure.

In addition to the above mentioned releases, US PPI is another event scheduled to release on Friday. It bears a forecast of 0.2% rise as compared to an increase of 0.3% in the previous release.

Other Important Events for the week ahead:

Bank of England (BoE)’s Monetary Policy Decision: BoE is scheduled to announce its interest rate decision on Thursday. Considering last week’s release of Manufacturing and House Price Index figures, it is highly expected that bank would not indulge into any alteration to its existing monetary measures, namely, 0.50% interest rate as well as $601 billion asset purchase facility. The statement followed by interest rate announcement carries much of the importance as it would highlight the future course of action by BoE.

Australia: Employment Change and Unemployment Rate are the two figures scheduled to release from Australia on Thursday. Employment Change indicates improvement in Australian Labor Market by bearing a forecast of 15.0K addition into the employment level as against the previous release of -10.8K. Unemployment Rate, on the other hand, indicates no change situation by 5.8% being the forecast matching the previous release.

Bank of Japan (BoJ)’s Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: BoJ is scheduled for releasing minutes of its most recent monetary policy meeting on Wednesday while the BoJ Governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, is scheduled for a speech on Thursday. Both these events carry equal importance which could give further insight into BoJ’s future monetary actions.

To sum up, considering the first ever partial shut down by US Government in 17 years, many issues related to US economics have been hung. Unless the Obama administration agrees to talk and the government restarts efficiently by raising the debt limit before October 17th, there are lesser chances of any improvements in the US Dollar scenario.

Flow of economic indicators is also becoming thin from the rest of the world, which induces market players to concentrate more on US happening rather than others, which ultimately drives the uncertainty and pessimism due to current standoff in US.

Original Article: Admiral Markets and hyper link Admiral Markets with http://www.admiralmarkets.com/

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About: Anil Panchal

Anil Panchal, Master of Business Administration, Finance degree holder, born in Ahmedabad 1989, is an Analyst with international Forex broker Admiral Markets. He has 5 years of experience in tracking macroeconomic environment. He is an expert in fundamental analysis and also practices various technical tools in order to form intraday and positional trading strategies. https://twitter.com/FX_Anil - Twitter

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