Crude Oil Weekly Fundamental Analysis October 1-5, 2012 Forecast

Introduction:  Crude Oil is considered the king of the commodities markets.

The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is the United States’ emergency oil stockpile, and it is the largest emergency petroleum supply in the world. The reserve stores about 570 million barrels of crude oil in underground salt caverns at four sites along the Gulf of Mexico. Any dipping into this reserve is going to be big news.

Brent Crude is traded in London as something called Futures contracts, which are priced in US Dollars. Now, all you traders brave enough to run your positions over a period of days or weeks, pay attention

Most commonly traded is the NYMEX where you find West Texas Crude. It is also traded in USD.

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

Crude Oil climbed back over 92.00 to close the week at 92.03 after falling below 90.00 in midweek trading. President Obama’s administration continues to threaten release of strategic reserves as the Saudi’s do their best to talk down prices. The heated tensions in the Middle East are the main factor affecting oil this week.

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu made a passionate plea and idle threats at his speech at the UN telling the world that time is running out to stop the Iranian nuclear threat.

Also the IMF reduced global growth and China’s eco data fell again this week, weakening oil prices.

Renewed supply concerns from the Middle East even as the Israeli Prime Minister is expected to raise the level of rhetoric against the Iranian nuclear program when he addresses the U.N. General Assembly later in the day. Investors also weighed the Energy Information Administration’s weekly oil report of an unexpected decline in U.S. crude stockpiles for the week ended September 21, which was overshadowed by the developments in Greece and Spain yesterday.

The Spanish budget for 2013 also helped crude prices, as Spain unveiled plans for economic reforms to revive the country’s sagging economy. The fourth largest economy in Europe announced a tight 2013 budget focused mainly on spending cuts rather than tax hikes.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of September 24-28, 2012 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD

Historical: From 2010 to Present

Highest:   114.81 on May 02, 2011

Average: 89.58 over this period

Lowest:   67.17 on May 25, 2010

WEEKLY

• This Week in Petroleum
  Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
• Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
  Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
• Weekly Petroleum Status Report
  Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. All other PDF and HTML files are released to the Web site after 1:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. Appendix D is produced during the winter heating season, which extends from October through March of each year. For some weeks which include holidays, releases are delayed by one day. (schedule)

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Oct 01 10:00 Norway 

Oct 02 09:15 Austria 

Oct 02 09:30 Belgium 

Oct 02 09:30 UK 

Oct 02 14:30 UK 

Oct 03 09:10 Sweden 

Oct 03 10:00 Norway 

Oct 04 08:30 Spain 

Oct 04 08:50 France 

Oct 04 15:00 US 

Oct 05 15:30 Italy