Crude Oil Weekly Fundamental Analysis October 1-5, 2012 Forecast
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Introduction: Crude Oil is considered the king of the commodities markets.
The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is the United States’ emergency oil stockpile, and it is the largest emergency petroleum supply in the world. The reserve stores about 570 million barrels of crude oil in underground salt caverns at four sites along the Gulf of Mexico. Any dipping into this reserve is going to be big news.
Brent Crude is traded in London as something called Futures contracts, which are priced in US Dollars. Now, all you traders brave enough to run your positions over a period of days or weeks, pay attention
Most commonly traded is the NYMEX where you find West Texas Crude. It is also traded in USD.
Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:
Crude Oil climbed back over 92.00 to close the week at 92.03 after falling below 90.00 in midweek trading. President Obama’s administration continues to threaten release of strategic reserves as the Saudi’s do their best to talk down prices. The heated tensions in the Middle East are the main factor affecting oil this week.
Sep 28, 2012
Sep 27, 2012
Sep 26, 2012
Sep 25, 2012
Sep 24, 2012
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu made a passionate plea and idle threats at his speech at the UN telling the world that time is running out to stop the Iranian nuclear threat.
Also the IMF reduced global growth and China’s eco data fell again this week, weakening oil prices.
Renewed supply concerns from the Middle East even as the Israeli Prime Minister is expected to raise the level of rhetoric against the Iranian nuclear program when he addresses the U.N. General Assembly later in the day. Investors also weighed the Energy Information Administration’s weekly oil report of an unexpected decline in U.S. crude stockpiles for the week ended September 21, which was overshadowed by the developments in Greece and Spain yesterday.
The Spanish budget for 2013 also helped crude prices, as Spain unveiled plans for economic reforms to revive the country’s sagging economy. The fourth largest economy in Europe announced a tight 2013 budget focused mainly on spending cuts rather than tax hikes.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Major Economic Events for the week of September 24-28, 2012 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD
German Ifo Business Climate Index
German Current Assessment
German Business Expectations
GfK German Consumer Climate
BBA Mortgage Approvals
CB Consumer Confidence
German 10-Year Bund Auction
CBI Distributive Trades Survey
German CPI (MoM)
German CPI (YoY)
New Home Sales
German Unemployment Change
Business Investment (QoQ)
Italian 10-Year BTP Auction
Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM)
Durable Goods Orders (MoM)
Initial Jobless Claims
Continuing Jobless Claims
Pending Home Sales (MoM)
French GDP (QoQ)
French Consumer Spending (MoM)
KOF Leading Indicators
Core PCE Price Index (MoM)
Personal Spending (MoM)
Michigan Consumer Sentiment
Historical: From 2010 to Present
Highest: 114.81 on May 02, 2011
Average: 89.58 over this period
Lowest: 67.17 on May 25, 2010
- This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
- Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
- Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. All other PDF and HTML files are released to the Web site after 1:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. Appendix D is produced during the winter heating season, which extends from October through March of each year. For some weeks which include holidays, releases are delayed by one day. (schedule)
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country
Oct 01 10:00 Norway
Oct 02 09:15 Austria
Oct 02 09:30 Belgium
Oct 02 09:30 UK
Oct 02 14:30 UK
Oct 03 09:10 Sweden
Oct 03 10:00 Norway
Oct 04 08:30 Spain
Oct 04 08:50 France
Oct 04 15:00 US
Oct 05 15:30 Italy
Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.comView all of FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman's Articles