Eight straight losses in the chip index left the Nasdaq-100 6.5% under its 6 October peak on 16 October, and even after a 1.17% rise on 19 October the 10% correction line sits less than 5% below it. I expect it to reach 30,000 before it reaches that line. Below, I race the two levels through 37 breaks like this one since 1986, test the break’s features against them, set the result beside futures positioning and index options, and mark the dated levels where I would be wrong.
Nasdaq 100 Eyes 30,000 Before a 10% Correction Despite Chip Rout
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Key Points:
- Eight straight losses gave the chip index its longest losing run since 2008, as TSMC's dollar revenue rose 41.2%.
- I raced a 2.8% rebound against a 3.7% fall to the 10% line through 37 first breaks since 1986.
- I tested falling yields, the chip selloff and a tightening Fed against that history and what index options price.