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WTI Crude Oil Futures Analysis

Oil News: Ceasefire Erases Risk Premium as Crude Oil Futures Sink 3%

By
James Hyerczyk
Published: Jun 4, 2026, 14:49 GMT+00:00

Crude oil prices fell 3% as an Israel-Lebanon ceasefire erased risk premium, boosting hopes for an Iran deal despite tight global supplies.

July WTI Drops 3% on Ceasefire but the Barrels Are Still Missing

July WTI crude oil dropped more than 3% on Thursday after Israel and Lebanon agreed to a ceasefire and the market pulled back from $97.00 to test the 50-day moving average at $91.77. The risk premium that pushed crude oil toward $100 is getting stripped out. But the Energy Information Administration just reported an 8 million barrel crude draw, Russia admitted production is falling, and the Strait of Hormuz is still not open. The ceasefire is holding by a thread and the 50-day MA is holding by the same one. Here is what the charts and the headlines are telling me.