Oil News: Crude Oil Analysis Shows Demand Weakness Capping War Risk Premium
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Key Points:
- Oil prices fell 5% as Hormuz talk cut the risk premium, but seven ships through the strait keep a reopening in doubt.
- OPEC+ announced six output increases, but Hormuz blocked exports and left most new production stuck on paper.
- WTI is below $84.61 resistance while Brent tests $90.12 support as sellers control the near-term crude oil trade.
The Strait of Hormuz is producing headlines faster than it is producing barrels. Crude is lower this week on talk of an Oman-Iran shipping corridor and a U.S. policy shift toward sanctions over military pressure. Seven vessels moved through the strait Thursday. The day before it was 17. The 10-day average is 15. Goldman Sachs puts total Gulf exports at 15 million to 16 million barrels per day, still 7 million to 8 million below pre-war levels and 5 million to 6 million above the March low. The premium is coming out on diplomacy. The shipping data has not confirmed it should.