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Crude Oil Futures Analysis

Oil News: Hormuz Attacks and Diesel Deficit Keep Crude Buyers in Control

By: 
James Hyerczyk

Key Points:

  • Three attacks near Hormuz in days have raised the cost of moving barrels through a corridor carrying 10.9 million bpd.
  • Russia lacks refinery capacity; 1.3 million bpd of Middle East and Russian diesel exports vanished in September.
  • WTI buyers need $96.02 for the next push; Brent holds its risk premium above the $102.20 pivot.

The tanker route through Hormuz took three hits in the last week and Iran is telling Reuters it changed how it attacks ships. That is not a problem crude can ignore while waiting for a Russian diesel deal that has no loading schedule behind it. Winter demand is still ahead of the market and the reserve buffer is being drawn down before it arrives. Crude is trading higher because the physical market has given buyers no reason to stop.