Crude Oil & Brent Oil Monthly Fundamental Forecast – November 2015

Outlook and Recommendation

Crude Oil ended the month with gains but stayed within a tight trading range close to $45. WTI closed at 46.40 near its highest trading point. Brent Oil add 66 points on the last session on Friday to close the month at 49.46.

US oil prices were sitting at about $50 per barrel on Friday. Another Wall Street Journal article states that “key U.S. drilling data showed another decline,” also noting that “the oil market now appears to be looking past current seasonal weakness and growing stockpiles.”

That’s significant given that some analysts believe new buyers may enter the market if prices can hold above the $50-per-barrel level. Finally, drillers removed 16 oil rigs this week, taking the total rig count down to 578, the lowest since June 2010; however, as yet that’s failed to impact prices. Oil prices rose on Friday, finishing higher for the week and month as well, after another decline in the US oil rig count indicated domestic crude production could fall in coming months.

Prices also got a boost from separate data showing US oil output in August fell to third lowest figure this year, wire service Reuters reported. Oil prices had trended higher since Wednesday’s 6% rally, sparked by a smaller-than-anticipated build in US crude and sharper-than-expected falls in petrol and diesel stockpiles. US oil drillers removed 16 rigs in the week ended 30 October, bringing the total rig count down to 578, the least since June 2010, Baker Hughes said in its closely followed report.

The drop was a sign that low prices were continuing to keep drillers away from the well pad, signaling lower production over the next several months.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

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