EUR/GBP Fundamental Forecast – July 29. 2016

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Published: Jul 28, 2016, 12:52 UTC

The EUR/GBP gained 62 points as the euro gained and the pound declined in today’s session. The pair is trading at 0.8425. Sterling edged down against the

EUR/GBP Fundamental Forecast – July 29. 2016

The EUR/GBP gained 62 points as the euro gained and the pound declined in today’s session. The pair is trading at 0.8425. Sterling edged down against the dollar and euro, refusing to be lifted by second-quarter UK growth data that was stronger than had been expected, though backward-looking.

Britain’s economy grew by 0.6 percent during a second quarter that ended with a vote to leave the European Union, up from 0.4 percent in the first three months of 2016.

Those numbers incorporated just a week of the period after the June 23 vote, but retail sales numbers released later that covered sales between June 28 and July 14 showed their sharpest fall in four years, raising doubts about the ability of consumers to stave off a Brexit recession.

Sterling hit a two-week low on Tuesday after BoE policymaker Martin Weale said Friday’s weak purchasing managers’ index (PMI) surveys would be “very material” for the bank’s next policy meeting. He had said last week that more evidence of economic weakness was needed before he would back an interest rate cut.

The BoE surprised markets in July by not cutting the benchmark borrowing cost from its record low of 0.5 percent. But minutes of the decision showed most policymakers expected to support an unspecified package of measures to boost the economy at the Bank’s meeting next week.

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Friday, July 29, 2016

Currency	Name	Volatility	Previous	Consensus
JPY	BoJ Interest Rate Decision	3	-0.1	-0.2
JPY	BoJ Monetary Policy Statement	3
EUR	Gross Domestic Product YoY)	3	1.7	1.6
EUR	Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)	3	0.6	0.3
EUR	Consumer Price Index (YoY)	3	0.1
EUR	Consumer Price Index – Core (YoY)	3	0.9