Precious Metals Monthly Fundamental Forecast – November 2015 – Gold, Silver & Platinum

Outlook and Recommendation

Gold bounced between 1130 and 1180 this month to close at 1141.60 falling off its highs after the Federal Reserve indicated that they would be raising rates in December. Silver is trading at 15.51 while Platinum dipped from its high this month at 1015 to close at 987.35.

In a highly anticipated FOMC meeting, the US central bank decided to further delay the first monetary policy cycle since 2004. The following USD sell-off was short-lived as Fed representatives were eager to ensure that markets would not start to price out a hike in December.

Whatever will be the decision by the US central bank, we believe that the US Dollar rally is set to continue until year end. In case that the Fed finally embarks on the first monetary policy tightening cycle since 2004, global investors will continue to allocate increasing shares of their funds into US Dollar paper, attracted by the increasingly attractive yield differential.

A further delay in the normalization of monetary policy would most likely trigger action in the form of additional quantitative easing programs by both, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan.

While markets were more or less prepared for an unchanged policy rate, the very dovish statement of Janet Yellen was a surprise. She said that the US economy is strong enough for a rate hike. However, due to uncertainties abroad, a tightening of financial conditions and a slightly lower inflation path, the Fed refrained from entering a tightening cycle in September.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

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