EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for September 29, 2016

The EUR/USD is trading flat at the mid-session. The market is also trading inside yesterday’s range that suggests investor indecision and impending volatility. The Euro is a funding currency and likely to take its direction from the movement in the U.S. equity markets. Bullish stocks tend to equal bearish Euro and vice-versa. Volatility today could come from the release of the U.S. Final GDP figure. It is expected to show a 1.3% gain.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The main trend is down according to the main trend indicator. It has been down since the Brexit vote on June 24. It’s not going to change until the top at 1.1426 is taken out.

The minor top is 1.1279. The minor bottom is 1.1122. This is also a closing price reversal bottom.

The short-term range is 1.1327 to 1.1122. Its retracement zone at 1.1224 to 1.1249 is currently being tested with the 50% level at 1.1224 currently being straddled.

The main support and the area controlling the longer-term direction of the EUR/USD is 1.1168 to 1.1159. This area should be considered support.

FORECAST

BASED ON THE CURRENT PRICE AT 1.1224, THE DIRECTION OF THE EUR/USD THE REST OF THE SESSION IS LIKLEY TO BE DETERMINED BY TRADER REACTION TO THE SHORT-TERM 50% LEVEL AT 1.1224.

A SUSTAINED MOVE OVER 1.1224 WILL SIGNAL THE PRESENCE OF BUYERS. THIS COULD CREATE ENOUGH UPSIDE MOMENTUM TO CHALLENGE A CLUSTER OF NUMBERS AT 1.1249, 1.1254 AND 1.1255.

THE ANGLE AT 1.1255 IS THE TRIGGER POINT FOR AN ACCELERATION TO THE UPSIDE.

A SUSTAINED MOVE UNDER 1.1224 WILL INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF SELLERS. THE DAILY CHART IS OPEN TO THE DOWNSIDE WITH THE NEXT LIKELY TARGET ANGLE COMING IN AT 1.1191.

WATCH THE PRICE ACTION AND READ THE ORDER FLOW AT 1.1224 TODAY. TRADER REACTION TO THIS PRICE WILL TELL US IF THE BUYING IS GETTING STRONGER OR IF SELLERS ARE REGAINING CONTROL.