Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC Defends $60K Floor as Jobs Data Looms

Bitcoin (BTC) finished the previous week down by over 8.50%, falling to as low as $59,800 on Friday, only to rebound sharply later and hold those gains throughout the weekend.

As of Monday, Bitcoin showed signs of stabilization above key technical support, raising hopes that it may consolidate around the same floor for the remainder of this week. Let’s examine this week’s catalysts in detail.

Tech Sentiment Still Driving Behind Bitcoin Sentiment

Last week, Bitcoin’s selloff accelerated alongside sharp derisking in the software and crypto complex, even as capital rotated into perceived safety and relative-value areas of equities.

That split matters. The S&P 500 Equal Weight Index (SPXEW) pushed to fresh highs while the Nasdaq Composite lagged, signaling this was not a “sell everything” liquidation.

Instead, it looked like a leadership unwind, a regime in which investors reduce exposure to higher-duration growth themes first.

Bitcoin, still trading like a high-beta macro asset during risk-off episodes, moved with that unwind. In other words, when software and tech appetite weaken, BTC tends to absorb the spillover.

If software equities stabilize and avoid another leg lower, Bitcoin sentiment should improve at the margin.

However, a failure in the Nasdaq, particularly a rejection at overhead resistance after this bounce, would likely cap BTC rallies and keep price action fragile.

Watch Out For Non-Farm Payroll Data This Week

Markets didn’t react much to the recent signs that hiring is slowing, but this week’s U.S. jobs report (Nonfarm Payrolls) is a big deal for Bitcoin.

If the report is much weaker than expected, i.e., fewer new jobs or a clear jump in unemployment, investors may worry the economy is getting worse. That usually pushes people to avoid risk, which can drag Bitcoin down.

If the report is a little weak but not terrible, markets may take it as “things are cooling, not crashing.”

That can increase bets on lower interest rates later this year, helping Bitcoin hold its bounce and move sideways instead of falling again.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis

BTC/USD Four-Hour Chart Outlook: Rising Wedge Breakdown Risks Persist

Bitcoin’s rebound is forming a rising wedge on the 4-hour chart, a pattern that often signals weakening upside momentum after a sharp selloff.

The price is making slightly higher lows, but the rally is losing strength as it approaches overhead resistance near the 50-4H exponential moving average (50-4H EMA; the red wave) at around $73,200.

If Bitcoin breaks below the wedge support, it could trigger another downside move, with the $64,000–$65,000 area emerging as a key downside target.

Until a clear breakout occurs, the setup favors caution rather than chasing the bounce.

BTC/USD Weekly Chart Outlook:

Bitcoin is entering the week at a technically important inflection point, with price holding just above its 200-week EMA (the blue wave in the chart below), a level that has historically acted as a key bounce zone during macro-driven downtrends.

In past cycles, this moving average has often been briefly lost before being reclaimed, with those recoveries later marking the start of new uptrends. That said, the risk is real. In 2022,

Bitcoin broke below the 200-week EMA and went on to fall nearly 40% before finally bottoming. This makes the current defense of the level especially important.

As long as Bitcoin holds above it, the probability favors stabilization or consolidation. A sustained loss, however, would reopen downside risk and delay any broader trend recovery in the weeks ahead.