USD/CHF, EUR/CHF, GBP/CHF, AUD/CHF: Technical Outlook

USD/CHF

While seven month old ascending trend-channel favors USDCHF advance, the pair is more likely to accelerate its upward trajectory to 1.0125-30 immediate resistance, breaking which 1.0200 can act as an intermediate stop prior to its run-up to the November 2015 highs of 1.0330. However, pair’s further north-move beyond 1.0330 can be capped by the mentioned channel’s resistance-line, near 1.0500 round figure mark. Meanwhile, 0.9950 and the channel support, also comprising the 100-day SMA, near 0.9850, can limit the pair’s near-term downside. Should it break the 0.9850 on a closing basis, also drops below 0.9800 mark, the pair becomes vulnerable enough to test 0.9650-40 support-area.

EUR/CHF

Having breached 100-day SMA and the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of its April – September 2015 up-move, the EURCHF currently struggles to break four month old descending trend-line resistance, around 1.0900 – 1.0910, which if broke can trigger the pair’s up-move to 1.0950 and to the 1.1000 psychological magnet. Moreover, successful trading above 1.1000 might enable the pair to surpass its September highs of 1.1050 and rally towards 1.1100 mark. On the downside, 23.6% Fibo and the 100-day SMA confluence, near 1.0860-50, becomes strong nearby support for the pair, clearing which it can quickly drop 1.0800 area while further south-run of the pair below 1.0800 can be confined by the five month old ascending trend-line support, near 1.0770. Given the pair’s inability to hold 1.0770, it can extend the downturn below 1.0680 and test the 50% Fibo, near 1.0640.

GBP/CHF

Repeated failures to surpass 1.5530-70 horizontal resistance-line, encompassing highs marked September 2014 and the January and November 2015, dragged the GBPCHF below 200-day SMA; however, the pair recently bounced from 1.4400 – 1.4390 support-zone, indicating a quick test to 1.4600 resistance mark. Should the pair mange to extend its profit booking moves beyond 1.4600, the 200-day SMA, near 1.4800, is likely an important level that could restrict its further advance, breaking which the pair might aim for 1.4950-70 resistance-zone before it could rise to 1.5120-30 area. Alternatively, a dip below 1.4390, quickly followed by the 1.4330-25, can fetch the pair to 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement of its January plunge, around 1.4130. Moreover, a closing break of 1.4130, also clearing the 1.4100 round figure mark, can further weaken the pair to test sub-1.4000 psychological magnet.

AUD/CHF

A yearlong ascending trend-line support, presently near 0.6830, triggered the AUDCHF bounce; though, a closing break above 100-day SMA, at 0.7055 now, becomes necessary for the pair to aim for 0.7155-60 immediate resistance-zone. If the pair mange to stretch its bounce beyond 0.7160, 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of its September 2014 – January 2015 drop, near 0.7300 mark, become an important resistance before the pair could rise to medium-term descending trend-line resistance of 0.7450, which if cleared can accelerate the pair’s northward moves to 50% Fibo, near 0.7560, prior to aiming the 0.7700 mark. However, daily close below 100-day SMA can continue signaling 23.6% Fibo, near 0.6950, as pair’s short-term support, breaking which 0.6830, encompassing mentioned trend-line support, is likely critical level for the pair traders to watch. Should the pair drops below 0.6830, it might drift lower to 0.6700 and then to the 0.6530-25 support area, including August lows.

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