Analysis and Recommendations: The EUR/USD gained 29 points today after German manufacturing data printed better than expected. The euro climbed to 1.0595
The EUR/USD gained 29 points today after German manufacturing data printed better than expected. The euro climbed to 1.0595 still under the 1.06 resistance level. Uncertainty over the ECB meeting has led to a fall in the value of the euro over the past month against most major currencies. Against the dollar it’s fallen 3.83 percent, it’s fallen 2.17 percent against the yen, 1.21 percent against sterling and two percent against the Chinese yuan.
Inflation forecasts will be updated by the ECB during the meeting, and some officials have already said that conditions have worsened since its latest estimates were published in September.
The dollar fell from an 8-1/2-month high on Tuesday as traders bought back the euro, reckoning a significant amount of further monetary easing had already been priced into the single currency ahead of Thursday’s European Central Bank meeting.
Buying the dollar against the euro has been one of the most crowded trades since ECB President Mario Draghi signaled in October that the central bank would unleash more stimulus at its policy meeting on Thursday. That makes a sharp contrast to the Federal Reserve, which has signaled a strong inclination to raise U.S. rates this month.
Commerzbank currency strategist Thulan Nguyen, in Frankfurt, said the dollar move lower on Tuesday was mainly a technical correction in an environment of relatively stretched dollar positioning, but that rates would rise further only slowly, meaning the greenback did not have that much higher to climb.
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Today’s economic releases:
Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
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CNY |
Manufacturing PMI (Nov) |
49.6 |
49.8 |
49.8 |
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CNY |
Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Nov) |
48.6 |
48.3 |
48.3 |
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AUD |
Interest Rate Decision (Dec) |
2.00% |
2.00% |
2.00% |
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AUD |
RBA Rate Statement |
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GBP |
BoE Gov Carney Speaks |
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EUR |
German Manufacturing PMI (Nov) |
52.9 |
52.6 |
52.6 |
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EUR |
German Unemployment Change (Nov) |
-13K |
-5K |
-7K |
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GBP |
Manufacturing PMI (Nov) |
52.7 |
53.6 |
55.2 |
Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:
Wednesday, December 2, 2015
Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
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AUD |
GDP (QoQ) (Q3) |
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0.7% |
0.2% |
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AUD |
GDP (YoY) (Q3) |
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2.3% |
2.0% |
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USD |
FOMC Member Brainard Speaks |
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GBP |
Construction PMI (Nov) |
|
58.2 |
58.8 |
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EUR |
Core CPI (YoY) (Nov) |
|
1.1% |
1.1% |
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EUR |
CPI (YoY) (Nov) |
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0.2% |
0.1% |
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USD |
FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks |
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USD |
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change |
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190K |
182K |
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USD |
Fed Chair Yellen Speaks |
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USD |
Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q3) |
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2.2% |
1.6% |
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USD |
Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q3) |
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1.1% |
1.4% |
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USD |
FOMC Member Tarullo Speaks |
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USD |
Crude Oil Inventories |
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-1.125M |
0.961M |
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USD |
Fed Chair Yellen Speaks |
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USD |
Beige Book |
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USD |
FOMC Member Williams Speaks |
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Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
Dec 02 11:30 UK Gbp 3.75bn 1.5% Jan 2021 Gilt
Dec 02 16:30 Sweden Announces details of Bond on 11 Dec
Dec 03 10:30 Spain 1.15% Jul 2020 Bono
Dec 03 10:50 France
Dec 03 11:03 Sweden Sek 0.7bn 1%
Dec 07 13:00 Norway Details bond auction on 09 Dec
Dec 07 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTP/CCTeu on 11 Dec
Dec 08 11:30 UK 3.5% 2045 Gilt auction
Dec 08 19:00 US Holds 3-year note auction
Dec 09 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction
Dec 09 11:05 Norway Holds bond auction
Dec 09 11:30 Germany Eur 3bn Dec 2017 Schatz
Dec 09 19:00 US Holds 10-year note auction
Dec 10 19:00 US Holds 30-year bond auction
Dec 11 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus