Natural Gas Weekly Fundamental Analysis – May 9 -14, 2016 -Forecast

Natural Gas closed out the week 2.091 down almost 4% on the week after temperatures remained moderate and the weekly inventory level showed a climb in stocks. Natural gas futures declined by 3% on Thursday after the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported early in the session that natural gas stockpiles increased by 68 billion cubic feet in the week ended April 29.

Although it was a large increase, it was slightly below the expected storage addition of 69 billion cubic feet. The five-year average for the week is an injection of around 64 billion cubic feet. Total natural gas inventories are about 49% higher than a year ago, and 47% above the five-year average for the same week.

Stockpiles are sitting at lofty levels after a mild winter meant little demand for natural gas as a source of electricity, and heat, over the winter. Now that we are in the shoulder demand season with an already well stocked market, storage changes that are in line with expectations are being interpreted as a bearish signal for the market.

May 6-12th: A weather system and associated cool blast is currently sweeping across the northeastern US with showers and slightly cool temperatures, which will bring a minor bump in nat gas demand today. Although, this will be followed by mostly comfortable temperatures this weekend and next week. There will still be numerous weather systems east of the Rockies that bring heavy showers and slight cooling, especially near the Canadian border around New England, but mostly mild to warm elsewhere with highs in the upper 60s to 80s. Over the West, Pacific systems will bring showers and modest cooling the next several days, including across California and the SW. Overall, much of the country will experience LOW nat gas demand the next 7 days.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Economic Events: (GMT)

WEEKLY

Natural Gas Weekly Update
Release Schedule: Thursday between 2:00 and 2:30 p.m. (Eastern Time)

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Release Schedule: Thursday at 10:30 (Eastern Time) (schedule)