The Week Ahead: Stock Market Investors Eye Fed Minutes, Home Depot and Walmart Earnings

Weekly U.S. Stock Market Outlook — August 17-21, 2026

Market Overview

U.S. equities finished last week mixed near record levels. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 53,732.41, down 0.56% for the week. The Nasdaq Composite finished at 26,729.16, up 0.14%, while the S&P 500 ended at 7,785.76, up 0.36%.

Inflation resumed its gradual downward trend, with headline CPI rising 3.4% year over year, down from 3.5%, while core CPI eased to 2.5% from 2.6%. Headline PPI moderated to 4.7% from 5.5%, while core PPI declined to 4.2% from 4.7%. The softer readings reduced expectations for additional Federal Reserve tightening, while the labor market remains steady.

Earnings expectations remain a source of support. Full-year 2026 earnings growth estimates for the S&P 500 now exceed 30%, with upward revisions broad-based and particularly strong across technology, commodity-related and economically sensitive sectors. All sectors are expected to deliver positive earnings growth.

The week’s primary catalysts include housing data, industrial production, unemployment claims, flash PMIs, the July FOMC meeting minutes and earnings from Home Depot and Walmart. The Fed minutes are expected to receive particular attention following July’s split decision to leave the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75%.

Key Economic Releases & Notable Earnings

Monday, August 17

Before the Open

No reports scheduled

Economic Releases

12:30 GMT, Empire State Manufacturing Index, forecast 10.6 (prior 15.6)

14:00 GMT, NAHB Housing Market Index, forecast 33 (prior 34)

20:00 GMT, TIC Long-Term Purchases, forecast 151.4B (prior 232.7B)

After the Close

Fabrinet (FN), est. $3.81 per share

Tuesday, August 18

Before the Open

Home Depot (HD), est. $4.73 per share. Revenue is expected at $47.2 billion, up 4.2% year over year, with EPS up 1%. Oppenheimer expects $4.66 per share and sees limited evidence of sustained home-improvement demand recovery, while management guidance and expectations for modest sales strengthening in the second half of 2026 could prove optimistic.

Amer Sports (AS), est. $0.11 per share

Baidu (BIDU), est. 9.35

Klarna Group (KLAR), est. -0.04

Economic Releases

12:15 GMT, ADP Weekly Employment Change, prior 8.3K

12:30 GMT, Building Permits, forecast 1.37M (prior 1.37M)

12:30 GMT, Housing Starts, forecast 1.35M (prior 1.43M)

12:30 GMT, Import Prices m/m, forecast 0.1% (prior 0.3%)

13:15 GMT, Capacity Utilization Rate, forecast 76.3% (prior 76.1%)

13:15 GMT, Industrial Production m/m, forecast 0.3% (prior 0.1%)

14:00 GMT, Pending Home Sales m/m, forecast 0.1% (prior -5.4%)

20:30 GMT, API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

After the Close

Jack Henry (JKHY), est. $1.46 per share

Keysight (KEYS), est. 2.48

La-Z-Boy (LZB), est. 0.49

Mercury (MRCY), est. 0.38

Toll Brothers (TOL), est. 2.93

ZTO Express (ZTO), est. 3.41

Wednesday, August 19

Before the Open

Analog Devices (ADI), est. $3.34 per share

Estee Lauder (EL), est. 0.32

Kingsoft Cloud (KC), est. -0.65

Lowe’s (LOW), est. 4.23

Target (TJT), est. 2.32

TJX (TJX), est. 1.19

Viking Holdings (VIK), est. 1.26

Economic Releases

14:30 GMT, Crude Oil Inventories, prior 17.4M

18:00 GMT, FOMC Meeting Minutes

After the Close

Bill.com (BILL), est. $0.71 per share

Coty (COTY), est. -0.01

Nordson (NDSN), est. 3.09

Webull (BULL), est. 0.05

Thursday, August 20

Before the Open

Walmart (WMT), est. 74 cents per share. Revenue is expected at $186.9 billion, up 6.3% year over year, with EPS up 8.8%. Jefferies anticipates an in-line quarter, citing resilience across macro environments, improving e-commerce margins and alternative revenue streams such as advertising. Potential tariff refunds could be reinvested into price, supporting traffic, share gains and same-store sales growth.

Advance Auto Parts (AAP), est. $0.81 per share

Alibaba Group Holding (BABA), est. 10.03

Autohome (ATHM), est. 1.89

Deere (DE), est. 4.69

Forgent Power Solutions (FPS), est. 0.24

NetEase (NTES), est. 15.56

ScanSource (SCSC), est. 1.14

Economic Releases

12:30 GMT, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, forecast 24.3 (prior 41.4)

12:30 GMT, Unemployment Claims, forecast 210K (prior 209K)

14:00 GMT, CB Leading Index m/m, forecast 0.1% (prior -0.2%)

14:30 GMT, Natural Gas Storage, prior 36B

After the Close

Flowers Foods (FLO), est. $0.22 per share

OSI Systems (OSIS), est. 3.77

Ross Stores (ROST), est. 1.94

Friday, August 21

Before the Open

BJ’s Wholesale (BJ), est. $1.17 per share

Buckle (BKE), est. 0.81

Economic Releases

13:45 GMT, Flash Manufacturing PMI, forecast 54.0 (prior 53.9)

13:45 GMT, Flash Services PMI, forecast 53.9 (prior 54.6)

After the Close

No reports scheduled

Central Bank Activity

Wednesday, August 19

FOMC July Meeting Minutes, 18:00 GMT

Traders will monitor the minutes for details surrounding July’s split decision and indications of how many FOMC participants favored or would have supported a rate increase, as well as any discussion of thresholds for a September move.

Technical Outlook

Weekly Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Dow Jones: 53,732.41 (-0.56%), support at 51,542.06, the 52-week SMA at 48,779.45, 45,057.28, resistance at 54,744.33.

Weekly Nasdaq Composite Index

Nasdaq: 26,729.16 (+0.14%), support at 24,425.34, 23,940.23, the 52-week SMA at 23,791.09, 23,173.24, 20,987.12, 20,690.25, 19,523.19, resistance at 27,190.21.

Weekly S&P 500 Index

S&P 500: 7,785.76 (+0.36%), support at 7,313.92, 7,237.85, the 52-week SMA at 6,982.29, 6,316.91, resistance at 7,816.70.

All major indices remain above rising 52-week SMAs, confirming an intact long-term uptrend.

Outlook

Housing reports, industrial production, unemployment claims and flash PMIs headline the economic calendar, while the July FOMC meeting minutes provide the week’s central bank focus. Home Depot and Walmart lead the earnings calendar, offering updates on consumer spending and demand.

The major indices enter the week above rising 52-week SMAs, with the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 near resistance. Economic data supporting the current inflation and policy outlook, together with constructive corporate results, would support continuation of the current trend. Data that revive inflation concerns or weaker corporate guidance would place key support levels under pressure, leaving traders focused on the Fed minutes, incoming economic releases and earnings.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.