E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – May 3, 2016 Forecast

June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading lower shortly before the cash market opening. Traders are reacting to the weaker-than-expected manufacturing data from China, the weaker U.S. Dollar and the strong Japanese Yen and Euro.

Technically, the main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The trend will turn up on a trade through 2094.25. A move through 2045.75 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The main range is 2012.25 to 2105.25. Its retracement zone is 2058.75 to 2047.75. This zone has been tested successfully the last three sessions with support coming in at its 50% level at 2058.75 yesterday and earlier today.

The short-term range is 2094.25 to 2045.75. Its retracement zone at 2070.00 to 2075.75 has been resistance the last two days.

Based on the current price at 2059.50, trader reaction to the 50% level at 2058.75 is likely to determine the direction of the market today.

A sustained move over 2059.50 will indicate the presence of buyers. This may create enough upside momentum to challenge a cluster of potential resistance levels at 2066.25, 2069.25 and 2070.00 and 2070.25.

Sellers are likely to come in on a test of 2066.25 to 2070.25. However, taking out 2070.25 could trigger a surge into 2075.75. This price is a potential trigger point for an acceleration into 2082.25.

A sustained move under 2059.50 will be bearish. This is a potential trigger point for a sharp break into the Fibonacci level at 2047.75 and last week’s low at 2045.75. This is followed by a long-term uptrending angle at 2039.25.

Taking out 2039.25 will mean the selling is getting stronger, setting up a possible slide into 2025.75. This is the last potential support angle before the 2012.25 main bottom.

Watch the price action and read the order flow at 2058.75, trader reaction to this level will tell us if buyers are coming in to support the market or if the selling pressure is getting stronger.