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The NZD/USD pair fell most of the session on Monday, but bounced in which it managed to form a hammer-like candle. The bounce came off of the 200 day exponential moving average, which to us suggests that the longer-term market outlook for this pair is higher. This EMA attracts a lot of trend traders, and that group will often leave their money in the markets meaning that the participants are buying with conviction.
The recent consolidation should continue in our opinion, and a break above the top of the Monday session highs has us buying for a small bounce to the 0.83 level. The selling of this pair isn’t possible until we get below the 200 day EMA, the 50% Fibonacci level, and the 0.80 handle.