Natural Gas Technical Analysis
The natural gas market did try to rally at the beginning of the session on Thursday, but it looks like the 200-day EMA is offering a bit of resistance.
Natural Gas Price Forecast
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See all Natural Gas forecastsThe $3 level is an area that seems to be like a magnet for price at the moment. While we did break out of a consolidation area that we have been in for a while, breaking down below the $3 level could open up the possibility of a return to that consolidation.
But keep in mind that we are getting ready to roll over into the November contract on Monday, and that has a major influence on how we’ll behave because, of course, November is typically a colder month than October. Now we’re starting to think about the idea that there will be more demand in the United States eventually.
Exports Will Be a Factor This Year
Furthermore, what will complicate this year is that we are not sure exactly how much liquefied natural gas the Europeans will need to buy from the Americans. Exports will be a major factor this winter, so I am bullish over time. But I also recognize that we’re still just a touch early, although we’re getting more into the bullish time of year.
We’re starting to think about exiting shoulder season, which is when we’re between high-demand times for air conditioning and then later for heating. Weather reports coming out of the northeastern part of the United States will be our main driver here, so keep an eye on those. But it looks more or less like traders are starting to think more about buying on the dip here than anything else.
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