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The EUR/USD pair got a nice bounce after initially falling on Monday as the Americans reported a very weak retail sales number. This had people selling the US dollar, and as a result the euro got a bit of a reprieve. This pair is sold off pretty drastically, and as such a bounce isn't necessarily out of the realm of possibility anyways.
Even though we see the hammer for the session on Monday, we are necessarily interested in buying this pair. We believe that even if the Federal Reserve Chairman mentions the possibility of further quantitative easing in front of Congress today, the fact that the European union is in such a mess will override that reaction in the long run. We will view any pop in this pair as an invitation to sell at higher levels, and we believe that the serious resistance starts right around the 1.24 level. Of course, the Fed Chairman could also failed to mention anything to do with quantitative easing, and this should send this pair straight back down. Either way, in the end we believe this pair goes lower in the long run.